{"id":21420,"date":"2019-03-12T09:22:44","date_gmt":"2019-03-12T01:22:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kuaiqikan.com\/?p=21420"},"modified":"2019-03-12T09:22:44","modified_gmt":"2019-03-12T01:22:44","slug":"chao-ji-qiang-da-bu-hui-xie-shi-zheng-lun-wen-kan-wan-ni-jiu-dong-le","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kuaiqikan.com\/chao-ji-qiang-da-bu-hui-xie-shi-zheng-lun-wen-kan-wan-ni-jiu-dong-le\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8d85\u7ea7\u5f3a\u5927\uff01\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5199\u5b9e\u8bc1\u8bba\u6587\uff1f\u770b\u5b8c\u4f60\u5c31\u61c2\u4e86\uff01"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u5bfc\u8bfb\uff1a\u8ddf\u968f\u4e16\u754c\u4e3b\u6d41\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8303\u5f0f\uff0c\u6570\u91cf\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e3b\u6d41\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u6570\u91cf\u5316\u7a0b\u5ea6\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\u7684\u4e00\u95e8\u5b66\u79d1\uff0c\u5176\u672c\u8eab\u8fd8\u662f\u8131\u79bb\u4e0d\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u4f7f\u547d\u662f\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u8bc6\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u65f6\u5019\u662f\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73b0\u8c61\u63d0\u51fa\u5408\u7406\u89e3\u91ca\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e00\u7bc7\u4e25\u8c28\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u9700\u8981\u4e09\u4e2a\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u8981\u7d20\uff1a\u89c6\u70b9(Perspective)\uff0c\u53c2\u7167\uff08Benchmark\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5 (Analytical Tool)\uff08\u94b1\u9896\u4e00\uff0c2002\uff09\u3002\u5b66\u4e60\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u8fdb\u884c\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5b66\u4e60\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u4eba\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8981\u5199\u4e00\u7bc7\u6709\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8bba\u6587\u6216\u62a5\u544a\u65f6\uff0c\u9009\u9898\u3001\u5efa\u7acb\u8ba1\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u9009\u62e9\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u7b49\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4eca\u65e5\u4e3a\u60a8\u5e26\u6765\u4e00\u7bc7\u5173\u4e8e\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5b9e\u8bc1\u8bba\u6587\u5199\u4f5c\u7684\u5168\u9762\u89e3\u6790\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

1<\/span>\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u8bba\u6587<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7a76\u7adf\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u8bba\u6587\uff1f\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u8bba\u6587\u5c31\u662f\u5bf9\u65b0\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u7684\u6c47\u62a5\u3002\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e00\u4f4d\u6210\u7ee9\u4f18\u79c0\u7684\u5b66\u751f\uff0c\u5728\u64b0\u5199\u6bd5\u4e1a\u8bba\u6587\u65f6\u53ef\u80fd\u4e00\u7b79\u83ab\u5c55\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\uff0c\u5e73\u65f6\u4e0a\u8bfe\u505a\u9898\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u5b66\u4e60\u5df2\u6709\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u53ea\u9700\u88ab\u52a8\u6d88\u5316\u5438\u6536\u5373\u53ef\uff0c\u6709\u56fa\u5b9a\u6a21\u5f0f\u53ef\u5faa\uff1b\u800c\u505a\u7814\u7a76\u5199\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u5219\u9700\u4e3b\u52a8\u521b\u9020 (\u54ea\u6015\u662f\u4e00\u70b9\u70b9) \u65b0\u77e5\u8bc6\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u521a\u8d77\u6b65\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5b66\u751f\uff0c\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u4ece\u5b66\u4e60\u77e5\u8bc6 (\u5b66\u751f) \u5230\u521b\u9020\u77e5\u8bc6 (\u7814\u7a76\u8005) \u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u4e0e\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u6216\u6563\u6587\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ec5\u4ec5\u8868\u8fbe\u67d0\u79cd\u60c5\u611f\uff0c\u6216\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8bba\u6587\u5fc5\u987b\u7528\u5341\u5206\u4e25\u8c28\u7684\u6570\u7406\u903b\u8f91\u6216\u7edf\u8ba1\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u6765\u4e00\u6b65\u4e00\u6b65\u5730\u5f97\u5230\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u4fdd\u8bc1\u6bcf\u4e2a\u73af\u8282\u90fd\u4e1d\u4e1d\u5165\u6263\u3001\u7ecf\u5f97\u8d77\u63a8\u6572\uff1b\u800c\u4e0d\u80fd\u968f\u4fbf\u53d1\u8868\u8bae\u8bba\uff0c\u6216\u8f7b\u7387\u5730\u4e0b\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u8bba\u6587\u8d35\u5728\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u5176\u4ef7\u503c\u4e3b\u8981\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u539f\u521b\u6027 (originality ) \u6216\u65b0\u9896\u6027(novelty)\uff0c\u5373\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5df2\u6709\u6587\u732e\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u8d21\u732e (marginal contribution)\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u25b2\u5df2\u6709\u77e5\u8bc6\u4e0e\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5173\u7cfb<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u89c4\u8303\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u5305\u62ec\u4ee5\u4e0b\u51e0\u4e2a\u6b65\u9aa4\uff0c\u5373<\/span>\u51c6\u5907\u9636\u6bb5\u3001\u9009\u9898\u3001\u63a2\u7d22\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u3001\u6536\u96c6\u6570\u636e\u3001\u5efa\u7acb\u8ba1\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u9009\u62e9\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u89e3\u91ca\u56de\u5f52\u7ed3\u679c\u3001\u8bba\u6587\u5199\u4f5c\u3001\u4e0e\u540c\u884c\u4ea4\u6d41\u3001\u63d0\u4ea4\u8bba\u6587\u6216\u6295\u7a3f<\/strong>\uff0c\u4e0b\u9762\u5206\u522b\u8fdb\u884c\u4ecb\u7ecd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

2<\/span>\u51c6\u5907\u9636\u6bb5<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u4ee5\u4e3a\u4eca\u5929\u60f3\u505a\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u660e\u5929\u5c31\u53ef\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u6216\u8bb8\u4e0d\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002\u8981\u5f00\u59cb\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u51c6\u5907\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u638c\u63e1\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u89c2\u5bdf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u89c6\u89d2 (perspective)\u3001\u53c2\u7167\u7cfb (reference \u6216 benchmark) \u4e0e\u5206\u6790\u5de5\u5177 (analytical tools)\u3002\u5426\u5219\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u770b\u5230\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u65e0\u4ece\u4e0b\u624b\u5206\u6790\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u94b1\u9896\u4e00 (2002, p.2) \u6240\u6307\u51fa\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6211\u5728\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u505a\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u97e6\u8328\u66fc (Martin Weitzman) \u6559\u6388\u95ee\u6211\uff0c\u53d7\u8fc7\u73b0\u4ee3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u6ca1\u6709\u7ecf\u8fc7\u8fd9\u79cd\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7a76\u7adf\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u533a\u522b\uff1f\u4ed6\u7814\u7a76\u6bd4\u8f83\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u53bb\u82cf\u8054\u8bbf\u95ee\uff0c\u95ee\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u4ece\u4e0e\u82cf\u8054\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4ea4\u5f80\u4e2d\u6709\u611f\u800c\u53d1\u7684\u3002\u97e6\u8328\u66fc\u7684\u56de\u7b54\u662f\uff0c\u53d7\u8fc7\u73b0\u4ee3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u5934\u8111\u4e2d\u603b\u6709\u51e0\u4e2a\u53c2\u7167\u7cfb\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u7ecf\u6d4e\u95ee\u9898\u65f6\u5c31\u6709\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u96f6\u6572\u788e\u6253\uff0c\u5c31\u4e8b\u8bba\u4e8b\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u754c\u5e38\u8bf4\u7684 \u201c\u50cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u90a3\u6837\u601d\u8003\u201d (Think like an economist)\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u7231\u56e0\u65af\u5766\u66f4\u65e9\u5c31\u8bf4\u8fc7\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u4e3a\u6df1\u523b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f60\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u773c\u524d\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4f60\u8fd0\u7528\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u7406\u8bba\u51b3\u5b9a\u7740\u4f60\u5230\u5e95\u80fd\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n

\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u90a3\u79cd\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u4efb\u4f55\u7406\u8bba\u6307\u5bfc\u800c\u76f4\u63a5\u53bb \u201c\u770b\u771f\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u201d \u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u6216\u8bb8\u8fc7\u4e8e\u5929\u771f\u4e86\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u5fae\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u5404\u4e13\u4e1a\u8bfe\u7a0b\u4e0a\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u3001\u8d22\u653f\u5b66\u3001\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u52b3\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7b49\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u8fdb\u884c\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u8fd8\u5fc5\u987b\u638c\u63e1\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u7edf\u8ba1\u8f6f\u4ef6 (\u6bd4\u5982 Stata)\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u4f60\u6536\u96c6\u5230\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4f46\u6570\u636e\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a \u201c\u81ea\u5df1\u8bf4\u8bdd\u201d\uff0c\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u4f7f\u7528\u7edf\u8ba1\u8f6f\u4ef6\uff0c\u8fd0\u7528\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u7edf\u8ba1\u63a8\u65ad\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u4e0d\u53ef\u6216\u7f3a\u3002\u5728\u5177\u5907\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u529f\u5e95\u4e0e\u8ba1\u91cf\u8bad\u7ec3\u540e\uff0c\u5373\u53ef\u6b63\u5f0f\u5f00\u59cb\u505a\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

3<\/span>\u9009\u9898<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\u5c31\u662f\u9009\u9898\uff0c\u5373\u9009\u62e9\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u9898\u76ee\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u521a\u8d77\u6b65\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8005\uff0c\u5e38\u5e38\u4e0d\u77e5\u5982\u4f55\u9009\u9898\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u901a\u5e38\u77e5\u9053\u81ea\u5df1\u60f3\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u9886\u57df (\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f)\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u8fd8\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u4f53\u7684 \u201c\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\u201d (research question)\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u5b9e\u8bc1\u5206\u6790\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u6709\u5173 \u201c\u00a0X\u00a0\u5bf9\u00a0Y\u00a0\u6709\u4f55\u4f5c\u7528\u201d \u4e4b\u7c7b\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5982\u679c\u60f3\u7814\u7a76 \u201c\u5bb6\u5ead\u8054\u4ea7\u627f\u5305\u8d23\u4efb\u5236\u5bf9\u519c\u4e1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u201d\uff0c\u5c31\u66f4\u5177\u4f53\u4e86\uff0c\u6b64\u5904\u00a0X\u00a0\u6307 \u201c\u5bb6\u5ead\u8054\u4ea7\u627f\u5305\u8d23\u4efb\u5236\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u00a0Y\u6307 \u201c\u519c\u4e1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u201d \u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u53ea\u6709\u00a0Y\u00a0\u800c\u6ca1\u6709\u00a0X\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5bf9\u4e8e\u67d0\u4e2a\u7edf\u8ba1\u6307\u6807\u00a0Y\u00a0\u7684\u6d4b\u7b97\uff1b\u4f46\u7eaf\u7cb9\u63cf\u8ff0\u6027\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5df2\u6bd4\u8f83\u5c11\u89c1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\u53ef\u4ee5\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u7406\u8bba (\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u68c0\u9a8c\u8d44\u4ea7\u5b9a\u4ef7\u6a21\u578b CAPM \u662f\u5426\u6210\u7acb)\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u6765\u81ea\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf (\u6bd4\u5982\u5a92\u4f53\u62a5\u9053\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u8c03\u7814)\uff1b\u53ef\u4ee5\u7814\u7a76\u67d0\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6548\u5e94 (\u6bd4\u5982\u65b0\u52b3\u52a8\u6cd5\u5bf9\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u7684\u5f71\u54cd)\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u5df2\u6709\u8bba\u6587\u8fdb\u884c\u6539\u8fdb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u7814\u7a76\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u5219\u5efa\u8bae\u5148\u6d4f\u89c8\u4e00\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u9876\u7ea7\u671f\u520a\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u6587\u671f\u520a\u7684 \u201c\u56db\u5927\u91d1\u521a\u201d\uff0c\u5373\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u300b\u3001\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66(\u5b63\u520a)\u300b\u3001\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u300b\u3001\u300a\u7ba1\u7406\u4e16\u754c\u300b\uff1b\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u82f1\u6587\u671f\u520a\u7684 \u201cTop 5\u201d\uff0c\u5373\u00a0American Economic Review\uff0cEconometrica\uff0cJournal of Political Economy\uff0cQuarterly Journal of Economics\uff0cReview of Economic Studies\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9876\u7ea7\u671f\u520a\u90fd\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u6027\u671f\u520a (general interest journal)\uff0c\u6db5\u76d6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u5404\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u3002\u5982\u679c\u786e\u5b9a\u7814\u7a76\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u67d0\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\uff0c\u8fd8\u53ef\u5173\u6ce8\u300a\u91d1\u878d\u7814\u7a76\u300b\u7b49\u4e13\u4e1a\u671f\u520a (field journal)\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6d4f\u89c8\u8fd9\u4e9b\u671f\u520a\u4e2d\u7684\u8bba\u6587 (\u901a\u5e38\u6280\u672f\u6027\u8f83\u5f3a\uff0c\u6545\u672a\u5fc5\u4ece\u5934\u8bfb\u5230\u5c3e)\uff0c\u53ef\u5927\u81f4\u77e5\u9053\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8005\u90fd\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u54ea\u4e9b\u524d\u6cbf\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u54ea\u4e9b\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u54ea\u4e9b\u672a\u89e3\u4e4b\u8c1c\uff1b\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc4\u4f30\u4ed6 (\u5979) \u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u9760\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u6539\u5584\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u80fd\u63d0\u51fa\u597d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u4f60\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5c31\u6210\u529f\u4e86\u4e00\u534a\u3002\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u597d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\u5462\uff1f\u603b\u7684\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\u8d8a\u5177\u4f53\u3001\u8d8a\u6709\u8da3\u3001\u8d8a\u65b0\u9896\u3001\u8d8a\u6709\u53ef\u884c\u6027\uff0c\u5219\u8d8a\u597d\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n

(1) \u5177\u4f53\uff1a\u7b80\u5355\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u4ee5\u4e0a\u201c\u00a0X\u00a0\u5bf9\u00a0Y\u00a0\u6709\u4f55\u4f5c\u7528\u201d \u7684\u53e5\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e94\u80fd\u660e\u786e\u00a0X\u00a0\u4e0e\u00a0Y\u00a0\u5177\u4f53\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

(2) \u6709\u8da3\uff1a\u4f60\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u91cd\u8981\uff1f\u522b\u4eba\u4f1a\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u5417\uff1f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u5728\u4e4e\u4f60\u7684\u95ee\u9898 (Why should we care)\uff1f\u77e5\u9053\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u540e\uff0c\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u67d0\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u5417\uff1f\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

(3) \u65b0\u9896\uff1a\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u4ef7\u503c\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u521b\u65b0\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u6240\u6ca1\u6709\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u8fb9\u9645\u8d21\u732e\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3001\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u65b0\u7684 (\u66f4\u597d\u7684) \u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u3002\u505a\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u662f\u521b\u9020\u65b0\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u5728\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u5b66\u4e60\u5df2\u6709 (\u65e7) \u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

(4) \u53ef\u884c\uff1a\u5373\u4f7f\u4f60\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\u5f88\u5177\u4f53\u3001\u5f88\u6709\u8da3\u3001\u5f88\u65b0\u9896\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5219\u4e0d\u53ef\u884c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u521a\u5f00\u59cb\u9009\u9898\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u81ea\u5df1\u80fd\u60f3\u5230\u7684\u9898\u76ee\uff0c\u90fd\u5df2\u88ab\u522b\u4eba\u505a\u8fc7\u4e86\u3002\u5176\u5b9e\u672a\u5fc5\u3002\u8981\u60f3\u505a\u51fa\u65b0\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\u53ef\u5728\u524d\u4eba\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u62d3\u5c55\u4e0e\u6539\u8fdb (\u6539\u8fdb\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u65b0\u6570\u636e\u7b49) \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b8c\u5168\u6487\u5f00\u524d\u4eba\uff0c\u53bb\u7814\u7a76\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c20\u4e16\u7eaa70\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u4e2d\u56fd\u519c\u6751\u5b9e\u884c\u4e86\u5bb6\u5ead\u8054\u4ea7\u627f\u5305\u8d23\u4efb\u5236\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u53f2\u65e0\u524d\u4f8b\u7684\u3002\u5230\u4e861990\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u5c31\u6d8c\u73b0\u51fa\u4e00\u6279\u7814\u7a76\u519c\u6751\u6539\u9769\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u519c\u4e1a\u4ea7\u51fa\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u8bba\u6587 (\u6bd4\u5982\uff0cLin, 1992)\u3002\u53c8\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c2014\u5e7411\u6708\u5f00\u59cb\u5b9e\u884c\u4e0a\u4ea4\u6240\u4e0e\u6e2f\u4ea4\u6240\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684 \u201c\u6caa\u6e2f\u901a\u201d\u3002\u5047\u4ee5\u65f6\u65e5 (\u6709\u4e86\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u6570\u636e\u540e)\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u7814\u7a76\u6caa\u6e2f\u901a\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u8bc1\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u524d\u4eba\u5df2\u7ecf\u7814\u7a76\u8fc7\u7684\u73b0\u8c61 (\u592a\u9633\u5e95\u4e0b\u6ca1\u6709\u65b0\u7684\u4e8b\u7269)\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u7528\u65b0\u773c\u5149\u3001\u65b0\u89c6\u89d2\u53bb\u89c2\u5bdf\u3002\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8981\u6709\u654f\u9510\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u529b\uff0c\u5e76 \u201c\u50cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u90a3\u6837\u53bb\u601d\u8003\u201d (Think like an economist)\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u521a\u8d77\u6b65\u7684\u65b0\u624b\uff0c\u5e94\u5c3d\u91cf\u907f\u514d\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u7814\u7a76\u5f97\u5f88\u70c2\u3001\u6216\u8fc7\u4e8e\u5bcc\u6709\u6311\u6218\u6027\u7684\u9898\u76ee\u3002\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u5907\u9009\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\u8d8a\u591a\u8d8a\u597d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u80fd \u201c\u5b58\u6d3b\u201d \u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u60f3\u6cd5\u901a\u5e38\u4e0d\u591a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

4<\/span>\u63a2\u7d22\u6027\u7814\u7a76<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6709\u4e86\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\u540e\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u884c\u521d\u6b65\u7684 \u201c\u63a2\u7d22\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u201d (exploratory study)\uff0c\u770b\u770b\u5b83\u662f\u5426\u5177\u6709\u65b0\u9896\u6027\u4e0e\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u67e5\u627e\u6587\u732e\uff0c\u8003\u5bdf\u522b\u4eba\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u7ecf\u505a\u8fc7\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5e76\u5927\u81f4\u4e86\u89e3\u6570\u636e\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u5f97\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

(1) \u901a\u8fc7\u6587\u732e\u56de\u987e\u8bc4\u4f30\u9009\u9898\u7684\u65b0\u9896\u6027<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u8d35\u5728\u6709\u65b0\u610f\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u4f60\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u4f53\u3001\u6709\u8da3\u800c\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u7a76\u7adf\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u65b0\u9896\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u9700\u8981\u67e5\u9605\u6587\u732e\uff0c\u770b\u770b\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u6709\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u5982\u679c\u522b\u4eba\u5df2\u505a\u8fc7\u5f88\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5219\u901a\u5e38\u987b\u66f4\u6362\u9898\u76ee\uff1b\u9664\u975e\u53e6\u8f9f\u8e4a\u5f84\uff0c\u627e\u5230\u5f88\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6216\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e2d\u6587\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u53ef\u5728 CNKI (China National Knowledge Infrastructure) \u4e2d\u641c\u7d22\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u82f1\u6587\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u53ef\u5728 JSTOR (Journal Storage) \u6216 EconLit with Full Text (\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4f1a) \u8f93\u5165\u5173\u952e\u5b57\u8fdb\u884c\u641c\u7d22\uff1b\u4e8c\u8005\u5747\u5168\u6587\u6536\u5f55\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7c7b\u82f1\u6587\u671f\u520a\uff0c\u4f46\u524d\u8005\u6709\u51e0\u5e74\u6ede\u540e\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e8c\u8005\u672a\u8986\u76d6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7c7b\u671f\u520a\uff0c\u53ef\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e3b\u8981\u51fa\u7248\u793e (\u96c6\u56e2) \u641c\u7d22\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982 Elsevier Science Direct, Springer Link, Taylor & Francis, Wiley \u7b49\u3002\u67d0\u4e9b\u5de5\u4f5c\u8bba\u6587\u5219\u53ef\u901a\u8fc7\u767e\u5ea6\u6216\u8c37\u6b4c\u641c\u7d22\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u25b2\u5c71\u4e1c\u5927\u5b66\u56fe\u4e66\u9986\u7535\u5b50\u8d44\u6e90\u9996\u9875<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4ec0\u4e48\u65f6\u5019\u5f00\u59cb\u770b\u6587\u732e\uff0c\u5373\u770b\u6587\u732e\u7684\u65f6\u673a\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4ece\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u5c31\u5927\u91cf\u5730\u9605\u8bfb\u6587\u732e\uff0c\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u6587\u732e\u6240\u6df9\u6ca1\uff0c\u671b\u6d0b\u5174\u53f9\uff0c\u81ea\u89c9\u6e3a\u5c0f\u3002\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u81ea\u5df1\u6709\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u518d\u53bb\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u770b\u6587\u732e\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u624d\u4f1a\u77e5\u9053\u81ea\u5df1\u7a76\u7adf\u8981\u770b\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u4e5f\u66f4\u80fd\u5e26\u7740\u6279\u5224\u7684\u773c\u5149\u53bb\u770b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u9605\u8bfb\u6587\u732e\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u4e5f\u5341\u5206\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u865a\u5fc3\u5730\u4ece\u7ecf\u5178\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u6c72\u53d6\u8425\u517b\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u7ad9\u5728\u5de8\u4eba\u7684\u80a9\u8180\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u5e94\u5e26\u7740\u67d0\u79cd\u6279\u5224\u6027\u7684\u773c\u5149\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027 (\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8fd8\u53ea\u662f\u8f6f\u79d1\u5b66)\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u8bba\u6587\u90fd\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7f3a\u70b9 (\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u67d0\u4e9b\u53ef\u80fd\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u56e0\u7d20)\uff0c\u4e5f\u90fd\u6709\u53ef\u4ee5\u6539\u8fdb\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4 (\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u7ffb\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba)\uff0c\u6545\u4e0d\u5fc5\u592a\u8ff7\u4fe1 \u201c\u6743\u5a01\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u65e2\u7136\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8fd8\u4e0d\u662f\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u5956\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u6301\u6709\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u53c8\u54ea\u6765\u7684\u6743\u5a01\u5462\uff1f\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u903b\u8f91\u4e0e\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u8fdb\u884c\u7504\u522b\u4e0e\u8d28\u7591\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u524d\u4eba\u6240\u505a\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5df2\u7ecf\u5341\u5168\u5341\u7f8e\uff0c\u4f60\u90fd\u8d5e\u540c\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u4f60\u600e\u4e48\u53ef\u80fd\u505a\u51fa\u65b0\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u8d21\u732e\u5462\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

(2) \u786e\u5b9a\u6240\u9700\u6570\u636e\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u5f97<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5728\u6b63\u5f0f\u5f00\u59cb\u7814\u7a76\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u8fd8\u5e94\u5927\u81f4\u77e5\u9053\u6240\u9700\u8981\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u3002\u6570\u636e\u4ece\u4f55\u800c\u6765\uff1f\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u8981\u4e48\u662f\u522b\u4eba\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684 (\u6bd4\u5982\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40)\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u662f\u81ea\u5df1\u6536\u96c6\u7684 (\u6bd4\u5982\u95ee\u5377\u8c03\u67e5)\u3002\u5bfb\u627e\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u7f51\u7edc\u641c\u7d22\u5f00\u59cb (\u6bd4\u5982\u8c37\u6b4c\u6216\u767e\u5ea6)\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8be2\u95ee\u4e13\u5bb6\u6216\u540c\u884c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u786e\u5b9e\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u8be5\u4ece\u54ea\u91cc\u627e\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u8fd8\u53ef\u5173\u6ce8\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u540c\u7c7b\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6eaf\u672c\u53ca\u6e90\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9605\u8bfb\u4e00\u5b9a\u6587\u732e\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5c31\u5e94\u8be5\u57fa\u672c\u4e86\u89e3\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5e38\u89c1\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\u4e86\u3002\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u56fd\u9645\u671f\u520a\u5df2\u5728\u5176\u7f51\u7ad9\u516c\u5f00\u4e86\u53d1\u8868\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u6240\u7528\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e0e\u4f30\u8ba1\u7a0b\u5e8f \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

5<\/span>\u6536\u96c6\u4e0e\u6574\u7406\u6570\u636e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4ece\u6570\u636e\u7684\u6765\u6e90\u683c\u5f0f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u5206\u4e3a\u7535\u5b50\u7248\u4e0e\u975e\u7535\u5b50\u7248\u4e24\u5927\u7c7b\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u975e\u7535\u5b50\u7248\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u9700\u8010\u5fc3\u8f93\u5165\u6570\u636e (\u901a\u5e38\u5148\u8f93\u5165Excel\u8868\uff0c\u518d\u5bfc\u5165Stata\u4e2d)\uff0c\u5e76\u6ce8\u610f\u68c0\u67e5\uff0c\u9632\u6b62\u51fa\u9519\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u4e0b\u8f7d\u7535\u5b50\u7248\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e94\u68c0\u67e5\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5173\u952e\u6750\u6599\u4e43\u662f\u6570\u636e\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6570\u636e\u8d28\u91cf\u4e0d\u9ad8\uff0c\u5219 \u201c\u5de7\u5987\u96be\u4e3a\u65e0\u7c73\u4e4b\u708a\u201d\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u591a\u4e48\u9ad8\u6df1\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u636e\u8d28\u91cf\u6709\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ea\u80fd\u662f \u201c\u5783\u573e\u8fdb\u53bb\uff0c\u5783\u573e\u51fa\u6765\u201d (garbage in, garbage out)\u3002Zvi Griliches \u5728 1994 \u5e74\u7ed9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4f1a\u505a\u7684\u4e3b\u5e2d\u6f14\u8bb2 (presidential address) \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e0d\u591f\u6ce8\u610f\u6570\u636e\u7684\u6765\u6e90\u53ca\u4ea7\u751f\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u9519\u8bef\u5730\u89e3\u91ca\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\u7f13\u6162\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u63d0\u9ad8\u6570\u636e\u8d28\u91cf\uff0c\u8ba1\u91cf\u7406\u8bba\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u8fdb\u5c55\u5c06\u65e0\u7528\u6b66\u4e4b\u5730\u3002\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0c\u5c06\u6570\u636e\u5bfc\u5165\u7edf\u8ba1\u8f6f\u4ef6\u540e\uff0c\u9700\u4ed4\u7ec6\u5bdf\u770b\u6570\u636e (inspect the data)\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e38\u89c1\u8bef\u533a\u662f\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53ea\u77e5\u8fdb\u884c\u56de\u5f52\uff0c\u5374\u4e0d\u53bb\u719f\u6089\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u636e (raw data)\uff0c\u6216\u589e\u52a0\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u7684\u611f\u89c9 (get a feel for the data)\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5bdf\u770b\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5e38\u89c1\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e3a\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7edf\u8ba1\u7279\u5f81 (summary statistics)\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5747\u503c\u3001\u6700\u5927\u503c\u3001\u6700\u5c0f\u503c\u3001\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u3001\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u7b49\uff0c\u5e76\u6839\u636e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e38\u8bc6\u5224\u65ad\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u5408\u7406\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u865a\u62df\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6700\u5c0f\u503c\u4e0e\u6700\u5927\u503c\u5fc5\u7136\u4e3a 0 \u4e0e 1\uff1b\u5426\u5219\uff0c\u6b64\u53d8\u91cf\u6709\u8bef\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6570\u636e\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u7ef4\u5ea6 (\u6bd4\u5982\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6216\u9762\u677f\u6570\u636e)\uff0c\u8fd8\u53ef\u753b\u65f6\u95f4\u8d8b\u52bf\u56fe\u3002\u5982\u679c\u53d1\u73b0\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u65f6\u70b9\u4e0a\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u53d6\u503c\u5f02\u5e38\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u5219\u5e94\u8003\u5bdf\u6b64\u6570\u636e\u662f\u5426\u6709\u8bef\uff1b\u5373\u4f7f\u6570\u636e\u65e0\u8bef\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e94\u8003\u8651\u5f02\u5e38\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u603b\u4e4b\uff0c\u5728\u5bdf\u770b\u6570\u636e\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u89c2\u5bdf\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4 (inconsistent) \u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff1b\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u3001\u4e0d\u73b0\u5b9e\u6216\u53ef\u7591\u7684\u53d6\u503c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5219\u8981\u8fdb\u884c\u5904\u7406 (\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6570\u636e\u8f93\u5165\u9519\u8bef)\uff0c\u8fd9\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a \u201c\u6570\u636e\u6e05\u7406\u201d (data cleaning)\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4ece\u4e8b\u5e94\u7528\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5b66\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u4f7f\u7528\u522b\u4eba (\u6bd4\u5982\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u3001\u4e16\u754c\u94f6\u884c) \u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u6570\u636e\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e94\u8be5\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6e05\u9192\u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u5e76\u4f7f\u7528\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5 (\u81f3\u5c11\u5728\u505a\u51fa\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u65f6\uff0c\u5e94\u8003\u8651\u6570\u636e\u8d28\u91cf\u7684\u5f71\u54cd)\u3002\u5728\u4f7f\u7528\u522b\u4eba\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u6570\u636e\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd8\u5e94\u6ce8\u610f\u5176\u5b9a\u4e49\u53ca\u7edf\u8ba1\u53e3\u5f84\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u662f\u4e0e\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e94\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u6307\u7684\u662f \u201c\u57ce\u9547\u767b\u8bb0\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u201d\uff0c\u5176\u7edf\u8ba1\u53e3\u5f84\u4e0e\u6807\u51c6\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u4e2d\u4ee5\u53ca\u897f\u65b9\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u6982\u5ff5\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8ba1\u91cf\u7684\u521d\u5b66\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e0e\u771f\u5b9e\u6570\u636e\u6253\u4ea4\u9053\u4e5f\u662f\u52a0\u6df1\u5bf9\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u9014\u5f84\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u5f04\u810f\u4f60\u7684\u624b (get your hands dirty)\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u771f\u6b63\u5b66\u4f1a\u505a\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

6<\/span>\u5efa\u7acb\u8ba1\u91cf\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u867d\u7136\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u53ef\u4ee5\u6ca1\u6709\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u6709\u597d\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u5219\u66f4\u6709\u8bf4\u670d\u529b\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u56de\u5f52\u5206\u6790\u4e00\u822c\u53ea\u80fd\u8bf4\u660e\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u8981\u5bf9\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u505a\u51fa\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u5e38\u5e38\u9700\u8981\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u65e0\u6cd5\u63d0\u4f9b\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e94\u8be5\u8fdb\u884c\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5206\u6790\u3002\u6700\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u662f\uff0c\u4ece\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u8ba1\u91cf\u6a21\u578b (econometric model)\uff0c\u5373\u5f85\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u56de\u5f52\u65b9\u7a0b\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e00\u7bc7\u597d\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u8bb2\u4e00\u4e2a\u597d\u7684 \u201c\u6545\u4e8b\u201d (story)\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u7528\u6570\u636e\u6765\u8bc1\u5b9e\u6216\u68c0\u9a8c\u6b64\u6545\u4e8b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u56de\u5f52\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u5f62\u5f0f\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8003\u8651\u7ebf\u6027\u3001\u5bf9\u6570 (\u53d8\u91cf\u53ea\u53d6\u6b63\u6570\u4e14\u6709\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u8d8b\u52bf)\u3001\u53cc\u5bf9\u6570\u3001\u975e\u7ebf\u6027 (\u8fb9\u9645\u6548\u5e94\u4e0d\u662f\u5e38\u6570)\u7b49\u3002\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u6a21\u578b\u8bbe\u5b9a\u65f6\uff0c\u5e94\u5c3d\u91cf\u4f7f\u7528\u5e38\u8bc6 (common sense) \u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba (economic theory) \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5c06 \u201c\u4eba\u5747\u53d8\u91cf\u201d (\u5982\u4eba\u5747\u6d88\u8d39) \u4e0e \u201c\u4eba\u5747\u53d8\u91cf\u201d (\u5982\u4eba\u5747 GDP ) \u76f8\u5339\u914d\uff1b\u4f7f\u7528\u5b9e\u9645\u6c47\u7387\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u5b9e\u9645\u8fdb\u51fa\u53e3\u3002\u53c8\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u8003\u8651 FDI \u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u7531\u4e8e FDI \u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\u9700\u8981\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u628a\u5f53\u5e74\u7684\u589e\u957f\u7387\u5bf9\u5f53\u5e74\u7684 FDI \u8fdb\u884c\u56de\u5f52\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6ca1\u6709\u592a\u5927\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u6bd4\u8f83\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u671f\u521d\u7684 FDI \u5bf9\u968f\u540e\u4e94\u5e74 (\u6216\u82e5\u5e72\u5e74) \u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u4f5c\u7528 (\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u4e5f\u53ef\u7f13\u89e3\u53cc\u5411\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb)\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u8bbe\u5b9a\u8ba1\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u53ef\u501f\u9274\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u540c\u7c7b\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8bbe\u5b9a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u65e2\u4e0d\u80fd\u8fc7\u4e8e\u7b80\u5355 (\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u8fc7\u5c11)\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5b9c\u8fc7\u4e8e\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u800c\u5e94\u5f53\u4fdd\u6301\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u7b80\u6d01 (keep it sensibly simple)\u3002\u5728\u9009\u62e9\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u65f6\uff0c\u201c\u4ece\u5c0f\u5230\u5927\u201d (specific-to-general) \u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\u7b80\u5355\u6613\u884c\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u80fd\u504f\u5dee\u8f83\u5927 (\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b58\u5728\u9057\u6f0f\u53d8\u91cf)\uff1b\u800c \u201c\u4ece\u5927\u5230\u5c0f\u201d (general-to-specific) \u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\u504f\u5dee\u5c0f\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u6613\u6267\u884c\u3002\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e38\u91c7\u7528\u6298\u8877\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u5373\u9009\u62e9\u7b80\u5355\u800c\u6709\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

7<\/span>\u9009\u62e9\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6709\u4e86\u8ba1\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u6570\u636e\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5373\u53ef\u6839\u636e\u6570\u636e\u7c7b\u578b\u4e0e\u7279\u70b9\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u5408\u9002\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u88ab\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u4e3a\u865a\u62df\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5219\u53ef\u4f7f\u7528 Probit \u6216 Logit\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u662f\u9762\u677f\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5219\u5e94\u8003\u8651\u56fa\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94\u3001\u968f\u673a\u6548\u5e94\u3001\u65f6\u95f4\u6548\u5e94\u7b49\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u662f\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\uff0c\u5219\u987b\u5148\u5224\u65ad\u662f\u5426\u542b\u5355\u4f4d\u6839\uff0c\u518d\u51b3\u5b9a\u4f7f\u7528\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u5148\u505a OLS\uff0c\u770b\u770b\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u53c2\u7167\u7cfb\u3002\u505a\u5b8c OLS \u540e\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u753b\u6b8b\u5dee\u56fe\uff0c\u5927\u81f4\u770b\u770b\u6270\u52a8\u9879\u662f\u5426\u7b26\u5408\u7ecf\u5178\u5047\u5b9a\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8fdb\u884c\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u68c0\u9a8c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6709\u6240\u8fdd\u80cc (\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u5f02\u65b9\u5dee\u3001\u81ea\u76f8\u5173)\uff0c\u5219\u505a\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u5904\u7406\uff08\u4f7f\u7528\u7a33\u5065\u6807\u51c6\u8bef\u6216 GLS\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\uff0c\u8fd8\u53ef\u68c0\u9a8c\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u7ed3\u6784\u53d8\u52a8 (\u90b9\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0cChow test)\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u8fdb\u884c\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u5224\u65ad\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u591a\u91cd\u5171\u7ebf\u6027\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u503c\u3001\u5f31\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u7b49\uff0c\u5e76\u505a\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u8c03\u6574\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7531\u4e8e\u53d7\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u5f97\u6027 (data availability) \u7684\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u9057\u6f0f\u53d8\u91cf\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f88\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u5728\u5b9e\u8bc1\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u5bf9\u6b64\u8fdb\u884c\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u4e0d\u5916\u4e4e\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e24\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u9057\u6f0f\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0e\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0d\u76f8\u5173 (\u9700\u8981\u8bf4\u660e\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0d\u76f8\u5173)\uff0c\u6545\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0d\u505a\u5904\u7406\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u9057\u6f0f\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u4e14\u4e0e\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u5219\u5fc5\u987b\u8fdb\u884c\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u589e\u52a0\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\u3001\u5bfb\u627e\u4ee3\u7406\u53d8\u91cf\u3001\u4f7f\u7528\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u3001\u4f7f\u7528\u9762\u677f\u6570\u636e\u7b49\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u53e6\u4e00\u5e38\u89c1\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u5185\u751f\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u9700\u627e\u5230\u6709\u6548\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u624d\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u9762\u677f\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u514b\u670d\u9057\u6f0f\u53d8\u91cf\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6545\u6bd4\u6a2a\u622a\u9762\u6570\u636e\u6216\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u66f4\u6709\u8bf4\u670d\u529b\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u9762\u677f\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5219\u5e94\u5c3d\u529b\u4e89\u53d6\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f7f\u7528\u5168\u56fd\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\uff0c\u5219\u4e00\u822c\u6837\u672c\u5bb9\u91cf\u8f83\u5c0f\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u6536\u96c6\u7701\u9645\u9762\u677f (provincial panel) \u7684\u76f8\u5e94\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u8bba\u6587\u90fd\u5e0c\u671b\u8bf4\u660e\u00a0X\u00a0\u5bf9\u00a0Y\u00a0\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u800c\u4ece\u56de\u5f52\u5206\u6790\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7cfb\u5347\u534e\u5230\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u662f\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u98de\u8dc3\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u4f7f\u7528\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u8bc6\u522b\u8fd9\u79cd\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u603b\u4e4b\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u5e94\u8be5\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6240\u7528\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u6700\u6070\u5f53\u7684\u3002\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u603b\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e9b\u7406\u60f3\u5316\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\u57fa\u7840\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u800c\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u901a\u5e38\u6216\u591a\u6216\u5c11\u5730\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5047\u5b9a\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8ba1\u91cf\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e25\u683c\u8bc1\u660e\u7684\u4e00\u95e8\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5374\u662f\u4e00\u95e8\u827a\u672f\uff0c\u5e38\u9700\u8981\u5728\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e4b\u95f4\u627e\u5230\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u59a5\u534f (be prepared to compromise)\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

8<\/span>\u89e3\u91ca\u56de\u5f52\u7ed3\u679c<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4f7f\u7528\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f30\u8ba1\u6a21\u578b\u540e\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u8f6f\u4ef6 ( \u6bd4\u5982 Stata ) \u5c06\u8f93\u51fa\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u6b64\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u8f83\u957f\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u5bc6\u5bc6\u9ebb\u9ebb\u7684\u8868\u683c\u4e0e\u6570\u5b57\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5c1d\u8bd5\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf (alternative specifications)\uff0c\u5219\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u4f1a\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\uff1f\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b57\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b57\u5730\u770b\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u770b\u660e\u767d\u4e3a\u6b62\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u8bc0\u7a8d\u3002\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u4f46\u771f\u6b63\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u901a\u5e38\u4e0d\u591a\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570 (\u542b\u7b26\u53f7)\u3001\u00a0p\u00a0\u503c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6837\u672c\u5bb9\u91cf\u3001\u62df\u5408\u4f18\u5ea6\u7b49\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u25b2\u5de5\u8d44\u5bf9\u6570\u5bf9\u6559\u80b2\u5e74\u9650\u7684\u56de\u5f52\u7ed3\u679c<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5728\u4e0a\u56fe\u7684\u56de\u5f52\u7ed3\u679c\u4e2d\uff0c\u53d8\u91cf\u00a0s\u00a0(\u6559\u80b2\u5e74\u9650) \u7684\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570\u7b26\u53f7\u4e3a\u6b63 (\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u76f8\u7b26)\uff0c\u7cfb\u6570\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u4e3a 0.0966245\uff0c\u00a0p\u00a0\u503c\u4e3a 0.000 (\u5728 1% \u6c34\u5e73\u4e0a\u5177\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u663e\u8457\u6027)\uff0c\u6837\u672c\u5bb9\u91cf\u4e3a 758\uff0c\u800c\u62df\u5408\u4f18\u5ea6 \u4e3a 0.2527 (\u6559\u80b2\u5e74\u9650\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u5de5\u8d44\u5bf9\u6570\u7ea6\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u7684\u53d8\u52a8)\u3002\u5728\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\uff0c\u5de6\u4e0a\u89d2\u7684\u6b8b\u5dee\u5e73\u65b9\u548c\u3001\u53f3\u4e0b\u89d2\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff0c\u4e43\u81f3\u5e38\u6570\u9879\u7b49\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0d\u5173\u5fc3 (\u9664\u975e\u6709\u9700\u8981)\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u89e3\u91ca\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd8\u5e94\u6ce8\u610f\u533a\u5206\u7edf\u8ba1\u663e\u8457\u6027\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u663e\u8457\u6027\u3002\u201c\u7edf\u8ba1\u663e\u8457\u6027\u201d (statistical significance) \u4e3b\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u00a0p\u00a0\u503c\u6765\u8003\u5bdf\u3002\u5982\u679c\u00a0p\u00a0\u503c\u5c0f\u4e8e\u6216\u7b49\u4e8e 0.05\uff0c\u5219\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8be5\u7cfb\u6570\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u663e\u8457\u5730\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u96f6\uff1b\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u5219\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u4e0d\u663e\u8457\uff0c\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u53ef\u5c06\u6b64\u7cfb\u6570\u89c6\u4e3a\u96f6 (\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728)\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u663e\u8457\u6027\u201d (economic significance) \u4e3b\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u7cfb\u6570\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u503c\u6765\u8003\u5bdf\uff0c\u987b\u7279\u522b\u6ce8\u610f\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u53d6\u503c\u5355\u4f4d\u3002\u5728\u4e0a\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u6559\u80b2\u5e74\u9650\u00a0s\u00a0\u7684\u5355\u4f4d\u4e3a\u5e74\uff0c\u800c\u88ab\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u5de5\u8d44\u5bf9\u6570 lnw\u00a0\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u5de5\u8d44\u7684\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6545\u00a0s\u00a0\u7684\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570\u4e3a 0.0966245 \u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u6bcf\u589e\u52a0\u4e00\u5e74\u6559\u80b2\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u5de5\u8d44\u6536\u5165\u5c06\u63d0\u9ad8 9.66%\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u663e\u8457\u6027 (\u53ef\u80fd\u8fc7\u9ad8\u4e86)\u3002\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u00a0s\u00a0\u7684\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570\u4e3a 0.01 \u6216 0.001\uff0c\u5219\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6bcf\u589e\u52a0\u4e00\u5e74\u6559\u80b2\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u5de5\u8d44\u6536\u5165\u53ea\u4f1a\u4e0a\u5347 1% \u6216 0.1%\uff0c\u663e\u7136\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u5f88\u4e0d\u663e\u8457\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u663e\u8457\u800c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0a\u4e0d\u663e\u8457\uff0c\u5219\u610f\u5473\u7740\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u5bf9\u88ab\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5f88\u5c0f \u00a0(\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0a\u4e0d\u663e\u8457)\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u79cd\u5f71\u54cd\u88ab\u4f30\u8ba1\u5f97\u5f88\u7cbe\u786e (\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u663e\u8457)\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5730\uff0c\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u8ba1\u91cf\u68c0\u9a8c\u65f6 (\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u8c6a\u65af\u66fc\u68c0\u9a8c)\uff0cStata \u53ef\u80fd\u8f93\u51fa\u5f88\u591a\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u9700\u8981\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u53ea\u662f\u539f\u5047\u8bbe\u4ee5\u53ca\u00a0p\u00a0\u503c\uff1b\u56e0\u4e3a\u77e5\u9053\u4e8c\u8005\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fdb\u884c\u68c0\u9a8c\u4e86\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u4f59\u4fe1\u606f\u90fd\u662f\u7ec6\u8282\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u901a\u5e38\u82b1\u8d39\u8f83\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u6536\u96c6\u4e0e\u6574\u7406\u6570\u636e\u3002\u5c06\u6570\u636e\u5bfc\u5165Stata\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8f93\u5165\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u56de\u5f52\u547d\u4ee4\uff0c\u5219\u662f \u201c\u89c1\u8bc1\u5947\u8ff9\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u201d (moment of truth)\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5173\u952e\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u517c\u5177\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u663e\u8457\u6027\uff0c\u7b26\u53f7\u4e5f\u4e0e\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u4ed6\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u7b26\u53f7\u4e0e\u663e\u8457\u6027\u4e5f\u5927\u4f53\u4e0e\u9884\u671f\u76f8\u7b26\uff0c\u5219\u4f1a\u611f\u5230\u5341\u5206\u6b23\u6170\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u6536\u96c6\u6574\u7406\u6570\u636e\u7684\u8f9b\u52b3\u4e5f\u90fd\u503c\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f46\u6709\u65f6\uff0c\u6240\u5f97\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ed3\u679c\u672a\u5fc5\u5c3d\u5982\u4eba\u610f\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5173\u952e\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0d\u663e\u8457\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u7b26\u53f7\u4e0e\u9884\u671f\u76f8\u53cd\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\u5e94\u600e\u4e48\u529e\u5462\uff1f\u5927\u81f4\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u51fa\u73b0\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u5982\u4e0b\u4e09\u79cd\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

(1) \u4f7f\u7528\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0d\u5f53\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e00\u5143\u56de\u5f52\u4e2d\uff0c\u663e\u7136\u9057\u6f0f\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u9057\u6f0f\u53d8\u91cf\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4 OLS \u4f30\u8ba1\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u66f4\u4e00\u822c\u5730\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5b58\u5728\u5185\u751f\u6027\u800c\u672a\u52a0\u4ee5\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u672c\u5e94\u663e\u8457\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u53d8\u5f97\u4e0d\u663e\u8457\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

(2) \u6570\u636e\u8d28\u91cf\u6709\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6570\u636e\u5b58\u5728\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u5ea6\u91cf\u8bef\u5dee\uff0c\u6240\u7528\u4ee3\u7406\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0e\u771f\u5b9e\u53d8\u91cf\u76f8\u5dee\u8f83\u8fdc (\u7531\u4e8e\u771f\u5b9e\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0d\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b)\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u6570\u636e\u8f93\u5165\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u4e3a\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u90fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

(3) \u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u6709\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5728\u6392\u9664\u4e86\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4e24\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u662f\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u4e0d\u6b63\u786e\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u6240\u9884\u671f\u7684\u67d0\u79cd\u6548\u5e94\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\uff1b\u6216\u8005\u540c\u65f6\u5b58\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u4f5c\u7528\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u51c0\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u7b26\u53f7\u76f8\u53cd\u3002\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u4e4b\u4e00\u5c31\u662f\u68c0\u9a8c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u5982\u679c\u53d1\u73b0\u5df2\u6709\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u8bc1\u636e\u4e0d\u7b26\uff0c\u5219\u8bf4\u660e\u6b64\u7406\u8bba\u5c1a\u6709\u6539\u8fdb\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u9700\u8981\u653e\u5f03\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u6797\u6bc5\u592b (2001, p. 75) \u6240\u6307\u51fa\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u53d1\u73b0\u7406\u8bba\u63a8\u8bba\u548c\u6211\u56fd\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4,\u8981\u575a\u6301\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u7406\u8bba,\u800c\u662f\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u53bb\u4e86\u89e3\u6211\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u73b0\u8c61, \u7136\u540e, \u6839\u636e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u73b0\u8c61\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u8fd9\u4e2a\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u6240\u4ee5, \u5f53\u53d1\u73b0\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u65f6, \u4e0d\u8981\u6b7b\u62b1\u7406\u8bba, \u6210\u4e3a\u73b0\u6709\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u4fd8\u864f, \u4e5f\u4e0d\u8981\u5728\u5de8\u4eba\u7684\u9762\u524d\u800c\u611f\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u6e3a\u5c0f\u3002\u5176\u5b9e,\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u5bf9\u7406\u8bba\u53d1\u5c55\u505a\u51fa\u8d21\u732e\u7684\u7edd\u597d\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u8ba1\u91cf\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u7ecf\u5e38\u6839\u636e\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ed3\u679c\u800c\u8c03\u6574\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ee5\u671f\u5f97\u5230\u66f4\u4e3a\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u53ea\u5728\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u6c47\u62a5\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u5c06\u5bfb\u627e\u6b64\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u9690\u53bb\u3002\u8fd9\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f \u201c\u6570\u636e\u6316\u6398\u201d (data mining) \u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6570\u636e\u6316\u6398\u65e2\u6709\u6210\u672c (\u7f3a\u70b9)\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u6536\u76ca(\u4f18\u70b9)\u3002\u6570\u636e\u6316\u6398\u7684\u4f18\u70b9\u662f\uff0c\u53ef\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u5404\u79cd \u201c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u201d\uff0c\u4ee5\u671f\u63ed\u793a\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u7684\u67d0\u79cd\u89c4\u5f8b\u6027\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u6a21\u578b\u8bbe\u5b9a\u7684\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u6539\u8fdb\u7406\u8bba\u6216\u8ba1\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u6570\u636e\u6316\u6398\u7684\u7f3a\u70b9\u5219\u662f\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5b83\u6839\u636e\u6570\u636e\u7279\u5f81\u6765\u8bbe\u5b9a\u8ba1\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6545\u6a21\u578b\u8bbe\u5b9a\u7531\u6570\u636e\u4ea7\u751f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u518d\u7528\u6b64\u6570\u636e\u53bb\u68c0\u9a8c\u7531\u5b83\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u662f\u5ba2\u89c2\u7684\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u5bfc\u81f4\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6316\u6398\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6316\u6398\u7684\u754c\u9650\u5e76\u4e0d\u6e05\u6670\uff0c\u6b63\u5982 Heckman (2000) \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u201c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4f7f\u7528\u6570\u636e\u6765\u68c0\u9a8c\u53d7\u5230\u8be5\u6570\u636e\u542f\u53d1\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5b58\u5728\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u62d2\u7edd\u4ece\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5b66\u4e60\u5e76\u4fee\u6539\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5219\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u66f4\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u201d \u3002\u89e3\u51b3\u6570\u636e\u6316\u6398\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u8fdb\u884c\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4ec5\u6c47\u62a5\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

9<\/span>\u8bca\u65ad\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4efb\u4f55\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u90fd\u6709\u5176\u9002\u7528\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u6761\u4ef6\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u524d\u63d0\u4e0d\u6210\u7acb\uff0c\u5219\u65e0\u6cd5\u4f7f\u7528\u6b64\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5 (\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1)\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u4f30\u8ba1\u5b8c\u6a21\u578b\u540e\uff0c\u5e94\u5bf9\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u6761\u4ef6\u8fdb\u884c \u201c\u8bca\u65ad\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\u201d (diagnostic checking) \u6216\u4f5c\u51fa\u5b9a\u6027\u8bf4\u660e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c2SLS\u4f30\u8ba1\u540e\uff0c\u5e94\u8fdb\u884c\u5f31\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u68c0\u9a8c\u3001\u8fc7\u5ea6\u8bc6\u522b\u68c0\u9a8c (\u5047\u8bbe\u5b58\u5728\u8fc7\u5ea6\u8bc6\u522b)\u3001\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u5185\u751f\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\uff1b\u5e76\u4ece\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u8bf4\u660e \u201c\u6392\u4ed6\u6027\u7ea6\u675f\u201d (exclusion restriction) \u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6210\u7acb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u53c8\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4f30\u8ba1\u81ea\u56de\u5f52 (AR) \u6216\u5411\u91cf\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b (VAR)\uff0c\u5219\u5e94\u68c0\u9a8c\u6b8b\u5dee\u662f\u5426\u4e3a\u767d\u566a\u58f0 (\u65e0\u81ea\u76f8\u5173)\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u8fdb\u884cOLS\u56de\u5f52\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e94\u8bf4\u660e\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5916\u751f\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u9057\u6f0f\u53d8\u91cf\u504f\u5dee\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

10<\/span>\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u4e86\u4f7f\u7528\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u901a\u5e38\u9700\u8981\u505a\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\u3002\u4f46\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u5426\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5047\u5b9a\u5f88\u654f\u611f\uff1f\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0c\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u653e\u677e\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u5047\u5b9a\uff0c\u770b\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u5426\u7a33\u5065\u6216\u57fa\u672c\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u8fd9\u79f0\u4e3a \u201c\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\u201d (robustness check) \u6216 \u201c\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\u5206\u6790\u201d (sensitivity analysis)\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6539\u53d8\u6837\u672c\u533a\u95f4 (\u6216\u53bb\u6389\u6781\u7aef\u503c)\u3001\u51fd\u6570\u5f62\u5f0f\u3001\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\u3001\u53d8\u91cf\u5b9a\u4e49\u3001\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\u7b49\uff0c\u6765\u8003\u5bdf\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u8ba1\u91cf\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u6570\u636e\u6316\u6398\uff0c\u627e\u5230 \u201c\u6700\u4f73\u201d \u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4ec5\u6c47\u62a5\u6b64\u6700\u4f73\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5219\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u9002\u5f53\u5730\u6539\u53d8\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8bbe\u5b9a\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f83\u5176\u4e3b\u8981\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u7a33\u5065\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u624d\u6709\u8bf4\u670d\u529b\uff0c\u6545\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u5b9e\u8bc1\u8bba\u6587\u4e0d\u53ef\u6216\u7f3a\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

11<\/span>\u8bba\u6587\u5199\u4f5c<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5f97\u5230\u8f83\u4e3a\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7ed3\u679c\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5373\u53ef\u5f00\u59cb\u5199\u8bba\u6587\u3002\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u8bba\u6587\u5c31\u662f\u5bf9\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u7684\u6c47\u62a5\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u4fbf\u4e8e\u8bfb\u8005\u66f4\u5feb\u5730\u4ece\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u83b7\u53d6\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8bba\u6587\u901a\u5e38\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u800c\u8bba\u6587\u5199\u4f5c\u672c\u8eab\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u95e8\u7cbe\u76ca\u6c42\u7cbe\u7684\u827a\u672f\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u66fc\u6606\u66fe\u95ee\u8fc7\u52a0\u5c14\u5e03\u96f7\u65af (John K. Galbraith) \u5199\u4f5c\u6210\u529f\u7684\u79d8\u5bc6\uff1b\u52a0\u5c14\u5e03\u96f7\u65af\u56de\u7b54\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u5199\u7684\u6240\u6709\u4e1c\u897f\u90fd\u4f1a\u4fee\u6539\u5f88\u591a\u6b21\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u76f4\u5230\u7b2c\u4e94\u7a3f\u65f6\u624d\u4f1a\u57fa\u672c\u6ee1\u610f\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u5206\u522b\u4ecb\u7ecd\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u5404\u4e2a\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\uff081\uff09\u6807\u9898\u3001\u5173\u952e\u5b57\u3001\u6458\u8981<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u9996\u9875\u901a\u5e38\u5305\u62ec\u6807\u9898\u3001\u4f5c\u8005\u3001\u6458\u8981\u3001\u5173\u952e\u5b57\u7b49\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u6807\u9898 (title) \u662f\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u6807\u7b7e\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u5546\u6807\u6216\u540d\u79f0\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u5e94\u9009\u62e9\u7b80\u6d01\u800c\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u7684\u6807\u9898\uff0c\u5e76\u80fd\u8ba9\u8bfb\u8005\u77e5\u9053\u8be5\u6587\u4e3b\u8981\u505a\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002\u5728\u8bba\u6587\u5199\u4f5c\u4e43\u81f3\u6210\u6587\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u90fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4fee\u6539\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff0c\u4f7f\u4e4b\u66f4\u4e3a\u8d34\u5207\u6709\u8da3\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u9898\u76ee\u4e4b\u4e0b\u4e00\u822c\u4e3a\u4f5c\u8005\u59d3\u540d\uff0c\u800c\u5c06\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u5355\u4f4d\u3001\u8054\u7cfb\u65b9\u5f0f\u3001\u611f\u8c22\u8bed (\u5305\u62ec\u57fa\u91d1\u8d44\u52a9) \u4ee5\u53ca \u201c\u6587\u8d23\u81ea\u8d1f\u201d \u7b49\u58f0\u660e\u653e\u5728\u811a\u6ce8\u91cc\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6709\u591a\u4f4d\u4f5c\u8005\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u9700\u9009\u62e9\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4f4d\u4f5c\u8005\u4f5c\u4e3a \u201c\u901a\u8baf\u4f5c\u8005\u201d (corresponding author)\uff0c\u8d1f\u8d23\u6295\u7a3f\u5e76\u4e0e\u7f16\u8f91\u90e8\u4fdd\u6301\u8054\u7cfb \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u9898\u76ee\u4e0e\u4f5c\u8005\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u4e3a\u6458\u8981 (abstract)\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u5728100\u5b57\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u6458\u8981\u9700\u7a81\u51fa\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u610f\u4e49\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u4e3b\u8981\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u8bfb\u8005\u4f1a\u5148\u770b\u6458\u8981\uff0c\u518d\u51b3\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u770b\u5168\u6587\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8bba\u6587\u6458\u8981\u5e94\u5b57\u659f\u53e5\u914c\uff0c\u51f8\u663e\u672c\u6587\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u5e76\u6fc0\u8d77\u8bfb\u8005\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u9605\u8bfb\u7684\u5174\u8da3\u3002\u6458\u8981\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u8bba\u6587\u4e3b\u4f53\u5b8c\u6210\u540e\u624d\u64b0\u5199\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6b64\u65f6\u4f5c\u8005\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5185\u5bb9\u4f1a\u6709\u66f4\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u6458\u8981\u7684\u4e0b\u9762\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u8fd8\u9700\u63d0\u4f9b\u51e0\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u5b57 (key words)\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u8bfb\u8005\u80fd\u5f88\u5feb\u5730\u6839\u636e\u5173\u952e\u5b57\u641c\u7d22\u5230\u6b64\u6587\u3002\u5173\u952e\u5b57\u5e38\u5e38\u6765\u81ea\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u9898\u76ee\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5728\u5173\u952e\u5b57\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd8\u53ef\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b JEL \u5206\u7c7b\u53f7\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4f1a\u4e3b\u529e\u7684\u00a0Journal of Economic Literature\u00a0\u6742\u5fd7\u6240\u7528\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5404\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5206\u7c7b\u7f16\u53f7 \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5b9e\u8bc1\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u6b63\u6587\u4e00\u822c\u4f9d\u6b21\u5305\u62ec\u4ee5\u4e0b\u90e8\u5206\uff1a\u5f15\u8a00\u3001\u6587\u732e\u56de\u987e (\u53ef\u5f52\u5165\u5f15\u8a00)\u3001\u7406\u8bba\u6846\u67b6\u6216\u80cc\u666f\u4ecb\u7ecd (\u53ef\u7701\u7565)\u3001\u6570\u636e\u8bf4\u660e\u3001\u8ba1\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u4f30\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u56de\u5f52\u7ed3\u679c\u3001\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c (\u53ef\u5f52\u5165\u56de\u5f52\u7ed3\u679c)\u3001\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u5206\u522b\u8fdb\u884c\u8bf4\u660e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

(2) \u5f15\u8a00 (Introduction)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5f15\u8a00\u867d\u662f\u5168\u6587\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5374\u7ecf\u5e38\u6700\u540e\u5199\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u5f15\u8a00\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e86\u5168\u6587\u7684\u5356\u70b9 (selling points)\uff0c\u6700\u96be\u64b0\u5199\uff0c\u987b\u53cd\u590d\u4fee\u6539\uff1b\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e8c\uff0c\u5f15\u8a00\u6982\u62ec\u4e86\u5168\u6587\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u5168\u6587\u5927\u4f53\u5b8c\u5de5\u540e\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u603b\u7ed3\u4e0e\u63d0\u70bc\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5f15\u8a00\u901a\u5e38\u5305\u62ec\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5185\u5bb9\uff1a\u672c\u6587\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6b64\u95ee\u9898\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u91cd\u8981 (\u7814\u7a76\u610f\u4e49)\uff1b\u672c\u6587\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u6570\u636e (\u6700\u597d\u5728\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\u4e0a\u6709\u6240\u521b\u65b0\u6216\u6316\u6398)\uff0c\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u54ea\u4e9b\u4e3b\u8981\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1b\u6b64\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u5df2\u6709\u6587\u732e\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u521b\u65b0\u4e0e\u8fb9\u9645\u8d21\u732e\u7b49\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u5f15\u8a00\u5c06\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u7cbe\u534e\u90e8\u5206\u4ee5\u975e\u6280\u672f\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5448\u73b0\u7ed9\u8bfb\u8005\uff0c\u53ef\u89c6\u4e3a\u6269\u5c55\u7248\u7684\u6458\u8981\uff0c\u662f \u201c\u9500\u552e\u201d \u6b64\u6587\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u624b\u6bb5\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u8bfb\u8005\u5728\u6d4f\u89c8\u8bba\u6587\u65f6\uff0c\u5e38\u5e38\u5148\u770b\u5f15\u8a00\u4e0e\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u518d\u51b3\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u7ec6\u8bfb\u6b63\u6587\uff1b\u53ef\u89c1\u5f15\u8a00\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5f15\u8a00\u7684\u5199\u4f5c\u5927\u81f4\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u5957\u8def\u3002\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u5957\u8def\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u63d0\u51fa\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u56de\u987e\u5df2\u6709\u6587\u732e\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0d\u8db3\u4e4b\u5904\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u987a\u52bf\u5f15\u51fa\u672c\u6587\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u4e3b\u8981\u8d21\u732e (\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u586b\u8865\u4e86\u6587\u732e\u7684\u7a7a\u767d)\u3002\u4f20\u7edf\u5957\u8def\u7684\u4f18\u70b9\u662f\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f83\u6709\u903b\u8f91\u6027\uff0c\u80fd\u81ea\u7136\u5730\u5448\u73b0\u5b66\u672f\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u8109\u7edc\uff1b\u5176\u7f3a\u70b9\u5728\u4e8e\u8bfb\u8005\u9700\u8981\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u8010\u5fc3\uff0c\u5148\u56de\u987e\u4e3b\u8981\u6587\u732e\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u624d\u77e5\u9053\u672c\u6587\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u73b0\u4ee3\u7684\u5957\u8def\u662f\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u95ee\u9898\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u9a6c\u4e0a\u76f4\u5954\u4e3b\u9898\uff0c\u4ecb\u7ecd\u672c\u6587\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u4e3b\u8981\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u518d\u56de\u5934\u4ecb\u7ecd\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u73b0\u6709\u6587\u732e\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u5957\u8def\u5404\u6709\u4f18\u7f3a\u70b9\uff0c\u9002\u5408\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u4f46\u76f4\u5954\u4e3b\u9898\u7684\u73b0\u4ee3\u5957\u8def\u4f3c\u4e4e\u65e5\u76ca\u6d41\u884c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5f15\u8a00\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6bb5\u901a\u5e38\u63d0\u4f9b\u5168\u6587\u7684\u8def\u6807 (roadmap)\uff0c\u544a\u8bc9\u8bfb\u8005\u672c\u6587\u7684\u5176\u4f59\u90e8\u5206\u5728\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0a\u5982\u4f55\u5b89\u6392\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u4e8e\u8bfb\u8005\u9605\u8bfb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

(3) \u6587\u732e\u56de\u987e (Literature Review)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6587\u732e\u56de\u987e\u5982\u679c\u8f83\u77ed\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f52\u5165\u5f15\u8a00\u90e8\u5206\uff1b\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6587\u732e\u56de\u987e\u8f83\u957f\uff0c\u5219\u53ef\u5355\u72ec\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6587\u732e\u7684\u56de\u987e\u4e00\u822c\u6309\u6587\u732e\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5148\u540e\u8fdb\u884c\uff0c\u7740\u91cd\u4ecb\u7ecd\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6587\u732e\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u4ed6\u6587\u732e\u53ef\u4ee5\u7b80\u7565\u4ecb\u7ecd\u3001\u653e\u5165\u811a\u6ce8\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u7565\u53bb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6587\u732e\u56de\u987e\u7684\u5199\u4f5c\u5207\u5fcc\u53ea\u662f\u5806\u780c\u7f57\u5217\u4e00\u4e9b\u6587\u732e\uff0c\u800c\u672a\u8fdb\u884c\u6df1\u5165\u5206\u6790\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6587\u732e\u56de\u987e\u7684\u6839\u672c\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5398\u6e05\u672c\u6587\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u5df2\u6709\u6587\u732e\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4ee5\u51f8\u663e\u672c\u6587\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u8d21\u732e\u53ca\u5176\u5728\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u80af\u5b9a\u73b0\u6709\u6587\u732e\u7684\u539f\u521b\u8d21\u732e\u5916\uff0c\u96be\u514d\u4f1a\u6307\u51fa\u5176\u4e0d\u8db3\u4e4b\u5904 (\u6216\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u65b9\u9762)\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u5e94\u6ce8\u610f\u8bed\u6c14\u59d4\u5a49\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6587\u732e\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u662f\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5ba1\u7a3f\u4eba\u6216\u7f16\u8f91\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4f60\u53c8\u5e0c\u671b\u7a81\u51fa\u672c\u6587\u7684\u72ec\u7279\u8d21\u732e (\u5f53\u7136\u5fc5\u987b\u5b9e\u4e8b\u6c42\u662f)\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u6307\u51fa\u73b0\u6709\u6587\u732e\u7684\u4e0d\u8db3\u4e0e\u7a81\u51fa\u672c\u6587\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u627e\u5230\u63aa\u8f9e\u4e0e\u8bed\u8c03\u4e0a\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

(4) \u80cc\u666f\u4ecb\u7ecd (Background Information) \u6216\u7406\u8bba\u6846\u67b6 (Theoretical Framework)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5b9e\u8bc1\u8bba\u6587\u5e76\u975e\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u627e\u4e00\u5806\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6c47\u62a5\u56de\u5f52\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u544a\u8bc9\u8bfb\u8005\u6709\u5173\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u5b8c\u6574\u5730\u8ff0\u8bf4\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u4f7f\u5f97\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ed3\u679c\u66f4\u6709\u8bf4\u670d\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6bd4\u5982\uff0cNunn and Qian (2011) \u7814\u7a76\u5f15\u5165 \u201c\u65b0\u4e16\u754c\u201d (New World) \u4f5c\u7269\u571f\u8c46\u5bf9 \u201c\u65e7\u4e16\u754c\u201d (Old World) \u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u957f\u4e0e\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5728\u5176\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8282\u80cc\u666f\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5373\u4ee5\u5927\u91cf\u7bc7\u5e45\u4ecb\u7ecd\u571f\u8c46\u7684\u4f18\u70b9 (virtues of the potato)\u3001\u571f\u8c46\u5982\u4f55\u4ece\u65b0\u4e16\u754c\u4f20\u64ad\u5230\u65e7\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u65b0\u4e16\u754c\u4f5c\u7269\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5e76\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4e0b\u8f7d\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u56de\u5f52\uff0c\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u719f\u6089\u6240\u7814\u7a76\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u3001\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0e\u6587\u5316\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u4e43\u81f3\u6570\u636e\u7684\u6765\u6e90\u4e0e\u4ea7\u751f\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u90e8\u5206\u53ef\u5f15\u5165\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b (theoretical model) \u6216\u601d\u60f3\u6846\u67b6(conceptual framework)\uff0c\u4e3a\u540e\u7eed\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u4f9b\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u4f46\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5b9e\u8bc1\u8bba\u6587\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5176\u7406\u8bba\u90e8\u5206\u4e0d\u5b9c\u592a\u8fc7\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f4\u55a7\u5bbe\u593a\u4e3b\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73b0\u8c61\u8fc7\u4e8e\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u73b0\u6210\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u6839\u636e\u5e38\u8bc6 (common sense) \u76f4\u63a5\u5199\u4e0b\u8ba1\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\u6216\u56de\u5f52\u65b9\u7a0b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

(5) \u6570\u636e\u8bf4\u660e (Data description)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5b9e\u8bc1\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u9760\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u6570\u636e\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u6570\u636e\u8bf4\u660e\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5e94\u8be6\u7ec6\u8bf4\u660e\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u5e76\u8bc4\u4f30\u5176\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u3002\u4ecb\u7ecd\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\u7684\u8be6\u7ec6\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u5e94\u4f7f\u8bfb\u8005\u80fd\u6309\u56fe\u7d22\u9aa5\u5f97\u5230\u540c\u6837\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fdd\u8bc1\u79d1\u5b66\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u53ef\u91cd\u590d\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u5bf9\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u5904\u7406\u6216\u52a0\u5de5\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e94\u4e00\u4e00\u8bf4\u660e\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6570\u636e\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u6709\u8d28\u7591\uff0c\u5219\u5e94\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u6570\u636e\u8d28\u91cf\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4f60\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6709\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0cGDP\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u6c34\u5e73\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u5938\u5927\u4e86\uff0c\u800c\u4f60\u4ec5\u4f7f\u7528 GDP \u7684\u589e\u957f\u7387\uff0c\u6545\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0d\u5927\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6570\u636e\u6765\u81ea\u95ee\u5377\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c\u5219\u5e94\u8bf4\u660e\u968f\u673a\u62bd\u6837\u5982\u4f55\u8fdb\u884c\uff0c\u95ee\u5377\u5982\u4f55\u53d1\u653e\u4e0e\u6267\u884c\u7b49\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u9644\u5f55\u4e2d\u9644\u4e0a\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u95ee\u5377\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4ecb\u7ecd\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4ee5\u8868\u683c\u5f62\u5f0f\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e3b\u8981\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u7279\u5f81 (summary of statistics)\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u6837\u672c\u5bb9\u91cf\u3001\u5747\u503c\u3001\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u3001\u6700\u5c0f\u503c\u3001\u6700\u5927\u503c\u7b49\uff0c\u4f7f\u8bfb\u8005\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u7279\u5f81\u6709\u6240\u4e86\u89e3\u3002\u6709\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd8\u4f1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u5173\u952e\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u77e9\u9635 (matrix of correlation)\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5bf9\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u521d\u6b65\u8bc1\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

(6) \u8ba1\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u4f30\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5 (Econometric model and estimation)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5728\u6b64\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u7ed3\u5408\u6240\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4ee5\u53ca\u5df2\u6709\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u7ed9\u51fa\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5373\u56de\u5f52\u65b9\u7a0b\u3002\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u51c6 (baseline \u6216 benchmark) \u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u8bbe\u5b9a (model specification) \u6709\u6240\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u589e\u52a0\u6216\u66ff\u6362\u53d8\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6b64\u90e8\u5206\u7740\u91cd\u9700\u8bf4\u660e\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u7b56\u7565 (estimation strategy)\uff0c\u5373\u7a76\u7adf\u5e94\u4f7f\u7528\u4ec0\u4e48\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u8bc6\u522b\u4e3b\u8981\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u521d\u5b66\u8005\u6613\u72af\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u76f4\u63a5\u4f7f\u7528\u67d0\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u800c\u672a\u8bf4\u660e\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8fd9\u662f\u6700\u5408\u9002\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u90fd\u6709\u9002\u7528\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4ed4\u7ec6\u7504\u522b\u4e0e\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5404\u6709\u4f18\u7f3a\u70b9\uff0c\u5219\u53ef\u4e8c\u8005\u90fd\u7528\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e8c\u8005\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

(7) \u56de\u5f52\u7ed3\u679c (Regression results)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4ecb\u7ecd\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5373\u53ef\u6c47\u62a5\u56de\u5f52\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4ee5\u8868\u683c\u5f62\u5f0f\u6765\u5448\u73b0\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u62ec\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4fe1\u606f\uff1a\u88ab\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0e\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u540d\u79f0\u3001\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u3001\u6807\u51c6\u8bef (\u6216\u00a0t\u00a0\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf)\uff0c\u4ee5\u661f\u53f7\u8868\u793a\u7edf\u8ba1\u663e\u8457\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf (\u6837\u672c\u5bb9\u91cf\u3001\u62df\u5408\u4f18\u5ea6\u7b49)\u3002\u5728\u6b63\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u56de\u5f52\u7ed3\u679c\u8fdb\u884c\u89e3\u8bfb\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u663e\u8457\u6027\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u663e\u8457\u6027\uff0c\u7b26\u53f7\u662f\u5426\u4e0e\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\u76f8\u7b26\u7b49\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

(8) \u7a33\u5065\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c (Robustness checks)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5728\u5b9e\u8bc1\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u6c47\u62a5\u4e00\u4e2a\u56de\u5f52\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u7136\u662f\u4e0d\u591f\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u663e\u8457\u6027\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8bbe\u5b9a\u4e0b\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8bbe\u5b9a\u4e0b\uff0c\u90fd\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u624d\u662f\u7a33\u5065\u4e0e\u53ef\u4fe1\u7684\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u6c47\u62a5\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7bc7\u5e45\u6bd4\u8f83\u77ed\uff0c\u53ef\u5f52\u5165\u4e0a\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u7684 \u201c\u56de\u5f52\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\uff1b\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u505a\u4e86\u8f83\u591a\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u5219\u53ef\u5355\u72ec\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
(9) \u7ed3\u8bba (Conclusion)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u6700\u540e\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5bf9\u5168\u6587\u6240\u4f5c\u5de5\u4f5c\u8fdb\u884c\u603b\u7ed3\uff0c\u5e76\u7ed9\u8bfb\u8005\u7559\u4e0b\u6700\u540e\u7684\u5370\u8c61\u3002\u7ed3\u8bba\u90e8\u5206\u901a\u5e38\u6982\u8981\u5730\u56de\u987e\u672c\u6587\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u4e3b\u8981\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u91cd\u7533\u672c\u6587\u7684\u72ec\u7279\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u4efb\u4f55\u8bba\u6587\u90fd\u6709\u5c40\u9650\u6027\uff0c\u6545\u4e5f\u53ef\u6307\u51fa\u672a\u6765\u7684\u6539\u8fdb\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e0e\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u8bfb\u8005\u4f1a\u5148\u770b\u5f15\u8a00\u4e0e\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u518d\u51b3\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u770b\u6b63\u6587\uff0c\u6545\u7ed3\u8bba\u90e8\u5206\u4e5f\u5341\u5206\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n

\uff0810\uff09\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e (References)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u90fd\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u524d\u4eba\u6210\u679c\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u6545\u5fc5\u7136\u4f1a\u5728\u6587\u4e2d\u5f15\u7528\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u6216\u8457\u4f5c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bba\u8457\u7684\u8be6\u7ec6\u51fa\u5904\uff0c\u5219\u4e00\u822c\u6536\u96c6\u4e8e\u6587\u672b\u7684\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\u3002\u9700\u8981\u7279\u522b\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6587\u4e2d\u6240\u6709\u5f15\u7528\u7684\u8bba\u8457\uff0c\u90fd\u5e94\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\uff1b\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u7684\u8bba\u8457\uff0c\u90fd\u5e94\u5728\u6b63\u6587\u4e2d\u88ab\u5f15\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\u7684\u987a\u5e8f\u4e00\u822c\u6309\u7167\u4f5c\u8005\u59d3\u6c0f\u7684\u5b57\u6bcd (\u62fc\u97f3) \u8fdb\u884c\u6392\u5217\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u540c\u4e00\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u4f5c\u54c1\u5219\u6309\u53d1\u8868\u5e74\u4ee3\u6392\u5e8f\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u671f\u520a\u5bf9\u4e8e\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u683c\u5f0f\u4e5f\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u8981\u6c42\uff1b\u5728\u6295\u7a3f\u524d\u9700\u6309\u6240\u6295\u671f\u520a\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u8fdb\u884c\u4fee\u6539\u3002<\/p>\n

\uff0811\uff09\u9644\u5f55 (Appendix)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6709\u4e9b\u8bba\u6587\u8fd8\u6709\u9644\u5f55\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u6536\u96c6\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u6b63\u6587\u9605\u8bfb\uff0c\u4f46\u7bc7\u5e45\u8f83\u957f\u7684\u7ec6\u8282\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7406\u8bba\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u628a\u7e41\u7410\u7684\u8bc1\u660e\u653e\u5728\u9644\u5f55\u3002\u800c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5b9e\u8bc1\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u4f1a\u628a\u8fc7\u957f\u7684\u6570\u636e\u8bf4\u660e\u653e\u5728\u9644\u5f55\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6570\u636e\u6765\u81ea\u95ee\u5377\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c\u5219\u901a\u5e38\u628a\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u95ee\u5377\u653e\u5728\u9644\u5f55\u3002<\/p>\n

\uff0812\uff09\u5199\u4f5c\u98ce\u683c<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8bba\u6587\u5c5e\u4e8e\u79d1\u5b66\u7c7b\u7684\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u8fc7\u4e8e\u534e\u4e3d\u7684\u8bcd\u85fb\uff0c\u800c\u5e94\u9996\u5148\u6ce8\u610f\u884c\u6587\u7684\u7b80\u6d01\u4e0e\u903b\u8f91\u6027\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4f18\u7f8e\u6d41\u7545\u7684\u6587\u7b14\u5bf9\u4e8e\u63d0\u9ad8\u8bba\u6587\u53ef\u8bfb\u6027\u3001\u5438\u5f15\u8bfb\u8005\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u5341\u5206\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u521d\u6b21\u5199\u8bba\u6587\u8005\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u8981\u6ce8\u610f \u201c\u4e66\u9762\u8bed\u201d \u4e0e \u201c\u53e3\u8bed\u201d \u7684\u533a\u522b\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u8fc7\u5206\u53e3\u8bed\u5316\uff1b\u4e0d\u80fd\u5634\u4e0a\u600e\u4e48\u8bf4\uff0c\u7b14\u4e0b\u5c31\u600e\u4e48\u5199\uff0c\u800c\u5e94\u4f7f\u7528\u66f4\u4e3a\u6d17\u7ec3\u5230\u4f4d\u7684\u4e66\u9762\u8bed\u8a00\u3002\u5728\u4e0b\u7b14\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u53ef\u5148\u5728\u8111\u6d77\u91cc\u6784\u601d\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0e\u5199\u4f5c\u98ce\u683c\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5199\u4f5c\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e5f\u662f\u4f7f\u601d\u8def\u66f4\u52a0\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u7684\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\uff0c\u53ef\u4f7f\u7528 Word \u6587\u6863\u4e2d\u7684 \u201cinsert\u201d\u00a0\u2192\u00a0\u00a0\u201cobject\u201d\u00a0\u2192\u00a0\u201cMicrosoft Equations\u201d \u8fdb\u884c\u7f16\u8f91\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u65b9\u7a0b\u66f4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u89c2 \u3002\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u6240\u6709\u5355\u72ec\u6210\u884c\u7684\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\uff0c\u90fd\u5e94\u6309\u987a\u5e8f\u7f16\u53f7\uff0c\u4ee5(1)\u3001(2)\u3001(3)\u7b49\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u4e8e\u68c0\u7d22\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u7684\u8868\u683c\u4e0e\u56fe\u7247\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e94\u6ce8\u610f\u5176\u683c\u5f0f\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8868\u683c\u7684\u6807\u9898\u5e94\u5728\u8868\u7684\u4e0a\u65b9\uff1b\u800c\u56fe\u7247\u7684\u6807\u9898\u5219\u5728\u56fe\u7684\u4e0b\u65b9\u3002\u5728\u8868\u683c\u6216\u56fe\u7247\u7684\u4e0b\u65b9\uff0c\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u6ce8\u91ca\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\u3001\u53d8\u91cf\u5b9a\u4e49\u7b49\u76f8\u5173\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u521d\u5b66\u8005\uff0c\u5efa\u8bae\u4ed4\u7ec6\u89c2\u5bdf\u7ecf\u5178\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0e\u98ce\u683c\uff0c\u5e76\u6ce8\u610f\u6a21\u4eff\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u4e2d\u6587\u8bba\u6587\u53ef\u4ee5\u6a21\u4eff\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u300b\u6216\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5b63\u520a\u300b\uff0c\u800c\u82f1\u6587\u8bba\u6587\u5219\u53ef\u53c2\u7167\u00a0American Economic Review,\u00a0Journal of Political Economy,\u00a0Quarterly Journal of Economics\u00a0\u7b49\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u53e4\u8bed\u6240\u4e91\uff0c\u201c\u719f\u8bfb\u5510\u8bd7\u4e09\u767e\u9996\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4f5c\u8bd7\u4e5f\u4f1a\u541f\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

12<\/span>\u7ed3\u8bed<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5982\u4f55\u624d\u80fd\u505a\u51fa\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\uff1f\u5982\u4f55\u624d\u80fd\u5199\u51fa\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8bba\u6587\uff1f\u66f4\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u624d\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u597d\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u6216\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\uff1f\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u8981\u8fbe\u5230\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u7edd\u975e\u5355\u4e00\u5b66\u79d1 (\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66) \u5c31\u80fd\u80dc\u4efb\uff0c\u800c\u9700\u8981\u5168\u65b9\u4f4d\u7684\u5b66\u8bc6\u4e0e\u7d20\u517b\u3002\u5728\u6b64\uff0c\u5f15\u7528\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u8bdd\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ed3\u675f\u8bed\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0e\u5927\u5bb6\u5171\u52c9 \uff08\u66fc\u6606\uff0c2009\uff0cp.39\uff09\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/strong><\/p>\n

Heckman, James, 2000. \u201c<\/span>Causal Parameters and Policy Analysis in Economics: A Twentieth-Century Retrospective<\/em>,\u201d\u00a0<\/span>Quarterly Journal of Economics<\/em>, 115, 45-97.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Lin, Justin Yifu, 1992. \u201c<\/span>Rural Reforms and Agricultural Growth in China<\/em>, \u201d\u00a0<\/span>American\u00a0Economic Review<\/em>,\u00a082, 34-51.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Modern Language Association of America<\/em>, 2009.\u00a0MLA Handbook for Writers of Research Papers, 9th edition, New York.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nunn, Nathan, and Nancy Qian, 2011.\u00a0<\/span>\u201cThe Potato’s Contribution to Population and Urbanization: Evidence from a Historical Experiment,<\/em>\u201d\u00a0<\/span>Quarterly Journal of Economics<\/em>, 126, 593-650.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6797\u6bc5\u592b\uff0c\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u79d1\u53d1\u5c55\u300b\uff0c\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u300b\uff0c2001\u5e74\uff0c\u7b2c4\u671f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u672c\u6587\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u00a0\u00a0\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5708\uff08\u5fae\u4fe1\u53f7\uff1acharitydove\uff09\u3002\u672c\u6587\u5185\u5bb9\u4e3b\u8981\u8282\u9009\u81ea\u300a\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u53caStata\u5e94\u7528\u300b\uff0c\u9648\u5f3a\uff0c\u5c71\u4e1c\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9662\uff0c2015\uff0c\u7b2c15\u7ae0\u3002\u7248\u6743\u5f52\u539f\u4f5c\u8005\u6240\u6709\uff0c\u793e\u79d1\u5b66\u672f\u5708\u6574\u7406\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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