{"id":20673,"date":"2018-12-17T19:12:35","date_gmt":"2018-12-17T11:12:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kuaiqikan.com\/?p=20673"},"modified":"2018-12-17T19:13:18","modified_gmt":"2018-12-17T11:13:18","slug":"20673-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kuaiqikan.com\/20673-2\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u56fd\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u4e0e\u4ef7\u503c\u56e0\u5b50"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u539f\u520a\u548c\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n

Journal of Financial Economics\uff0c<\/strong><\/em>Forthcoming<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Jianan Liu<\/strong>\u00a0(University of Pennsylvania)<\/p>\n

Robert Stambaugh<\/strong>\u00a0(University of Pennsylvania, NBER)<\/p>\n

Yu Yuan<\/strong>\u00a0(Shanghai Mingshi Investment Company, University of Pennsylvania)<\/p>\n

\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/strong>\u672c\u6587\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u4e0e\u4ef7\u503c\u56e0\u5b50\u3002\u6784\u5efa\u5e02\u503c\u56e0\u5b50\u65f6\u6392\u9664\u5e02\u503c\u6700\u5c0f30%\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5c0f\u516c\u53f8\u5e02\u503c\u5305\u62ec\u58f3\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u4ef7\u503c\u56e0\u5b50\u5219\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u76c8\u5229\u5e02\u4ef7\u6bd4(earnings-price ratio, EP)\u6784\u5efa\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u5438\u6536Fama and French\u7684\u8d26\u9762\u5e02\u503c\u6bd4(book-to-market ratio, BM)\uff0c\u5e76\u5b8c\u5168\u6355\u6349\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6240\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u7684\u4e09\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\u5b8c\u5168\u4f18\u4e8e\u5355\u7eaf\u590d\u5236Fama and French (1993)\u7684\u4e09\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u539f\u4e09\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\u65e0\u6cd5\u89e3\u91ca\u76c8\u5229\u5e02\u4ef7\u6bd4\u4e2d17%\u7684\u5e74\u5316\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca(alpha)\u3002\u672c\u6587\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5219\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5f02\u8c61\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u76c8\u5229(profitability)\u5f02\u8c61\u548c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387(volatility)\u5f02\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u80cc\u666f<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u8d44\u4ea7\u5b9a\u4ef7\u548c\u5236\u5b9a\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u57fa\u77f3\u3002\u76f4\u5230\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5927\u90fd\u4f7f\u7528\u7b80\u5355\u590d\u5236Fama and French (1993)\u7684\u4e09\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73af\u5883\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5927\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e5f\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\u9694\u79bb\u3002\u672c\u6587\u9488\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u73af\u5883\u6784\u5efa\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u5185\u5bb9<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u672c\u6587\u9996\u5148\u6839\u636e\u4e2d\u56fd\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u6784\u5efa\u5177\u6709\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u60c5\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u548c\u4ef7\u503c\u56e0\u5b50\u3002\u7136\u540e\u6bd4\u8f83\u65b0\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e09\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u7b80\u5355\u590d\u5236Fama and French (1993)\u4e09\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4e92\u76f8\u89e3\u91ca\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u968f\u540e\uff0c\u603b\u7ed3\u4e2d\u56fd\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6240\u6709\u6a2a\u622a\u9762\u5f02\u8c61\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e24\u4e2a\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u5f02\u8c61\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u548c\u7ed3\u679c<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4e00\u3001\u6784\u5efa\u4e2d\u56fd\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u4e0e\u4ef7\u503c\u56e0\u5b50<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5e02\u503c\u56e0\u5b50\u6307\u7531\u516c\u53f8\u5e02\u503c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u6536\u76ca\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5dee\u5f02\u5e94\u8be5\u53ea\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\u57fa\u7840\u4e1a\u52a1\u4e2d\u4e0e\u5e02\u503c\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u7136\u800c\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5c0f\u5e02\u503c\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u5b9a\u4ef7\u901a\u5e38\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e1a\u52a1\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7531\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u7279\u5b9aIPO\u5236\u5ea6\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u58f3\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u4e2d\u56fdIPO\u6761\u4ef6\u4e25\u82db\uff0c\u5c0f\u5e02\u503c\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u66f4\u591a\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u4e70\u58f3\u4e0a\u5e02\u4e2d\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u58f3\u8d44\u6e90\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e02\u573a83%\u4e70\u58f3\u4e0a\u5e02\u7684\u662f\u5e02\u503c\u6700\u5c0f30%\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u907f\u514d\u58f3\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u201c\u6c61\u67d3\u201d\uff0c\u5728\u6784\u5efa\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e0\u5b50\u65f6\uff0c\u90fd\u6392\u9664\u5e02\u503c\u6700\u5c0f30%\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u5360\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u603b\u5e02\u503c\u7ea67%\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u5bfb\u627e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u9075\u5faaFama and French (1992)\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c06\u201c\u4ee5\u4f55\u79cd\u4f30\u503c\u6bd4\u7387\u4e3a\u4ef7\u503c\u56e0\u5b50\u201d\u5f53\u4f5c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9e\u8bc1\u95ee\u9898\u6765\u770b\u5f85\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u4f30\u503c\u6bd4\u7387\u53d8\u91cf\u4e2d\u6700\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u80a1\u7968\u5e73\u5747\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u6a2a\u622a\u9762\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u90a3\u4e9b\u3002\u672c\u6587\u5728\u6240\u6709\u5f85\u9009\u4f30\u503c\u6bd4\u7387\u95f4\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u76c8\u5229\u5e02\u4ef7\u6bd4(EP)\u3001\u8d26\u9762\u5e02\u503c\u6bd4(BM)\u3001\u8d44\u4ea7\u5e02\u4ef7\u6bd4\u548c\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u5e02\u4ef7\u6bd4\u3002\u5728\u5305\u62ec\u8fd9\u56db\u4e2a\u6bd4\u7387\u7684Fama – MacBeth\u56de\u5f52\u4e2d\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\uff0cEP\u5b8c\u5168\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u5176\u4ed6\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u800cFama and French (1992)\u53d1\u73b0\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\uff0cBM\u8d85\u8fc7\u5176\u4ed6\u6bd4\u7387\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0cFama and French (1993)\u57fa\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528BM\u6784\u5efa\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ef7\u503c\u56e0\u5b50\uff1b\u800c\u672c\u6587\u5219\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528EP\u6784\u5efa\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ef7\u503c\u56e0\u5b50\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4e8c\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u65b0\u4e09\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\u4e0eFF\u4e09\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\u6bd4\u8f83<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e24\u4e2a\u6539\u8fdb\uff0c\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u5b50\u9075\u5faaFama and French (1993)\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86CH-3\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e09\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u5e02\u573a\u56e0\u5b50\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e2d\u56fd\u7279\u8272\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u4e0e\u4ef7\u503c\u56e0\u5b50\u3002\u4e3a\u4e0eFF-3\u4e09\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u590d\u5236Fama and French (1993)\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0CH-3\u5b8c\u5168\u4f18\u4e8eFF-3\u3002<\/strong>\u5177\u4f53\u6765\u8bf4\uff0cFF-3\u6a21\u578b\u4e0d\u80fd\u4e3aCH-3\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u4e0e\u4ef7\u503c\u56e0\u5b50\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u5b58\u5728\u663e\u8457\u76845.6%\u548c16.7%\u7684\u5e74\u5316alpha\u6536\u76ca\uff1b\u76f8\u6bd4\u8f83\u800c\u8a00\uff0cCH-3\u6a21\u578b\u5219\u80fd\u4e3aFF-3\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u4e0e\u4ef7\u503c\u56e0\u5b50\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u663e\u8457\u7684-0.5%\u548c4.1%\u5e74\u5316alpha\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e09\u3001\u65b0\u4e09\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u5f02\u8c61\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u529b<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6bd4\u8f83\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\u4f18\u52a3\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u91cd\u8981\u6807\u51c6\u662f\uff0c\u770b\u4e0d\u540c\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\u89e3\u91ca\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u6a2a\u622a\u9762\u5f02\u8c61\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u6839\u636e\u5bf9\u5df2\u6709\u6587\u732e\u7684\u603b\u7ed3\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u5c06\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f02\u8c61\u5212\u5206\u4e3a9\u7c7b\uff1a\u5e02\u503c\u3001\u4ef7\u503c\u3001\u76c8\u5229\u3001\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u3001\u6536\u76ca\u53cd\u8f6c\u3001\u6362\u624b\u7387\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u3001\u5e94\u8ba1\u5229\u6da6\u548c\u4f4e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0cFF-3\u9664\u4e86\u5e02\u503c\u5f02\u8c61\u4ee5\u5916\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u89e3\u91ca\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u7c7b\u5f02\u8c61\u3002CH-3\u5219\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u6781\u5f3a\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u5e02\u503c\u548c\u4ef7\u503c\u5916\uff0cCH-3\u8fd8\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u89e3\u91ca\u76c8\u5229\u3001\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u3001\u5e94\u8ba1\u5229\u6da6\u548c\u4f4e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5f02\u8c61\uff0c\u4ec5\u5728\u6536\u76ca\u53cd\u8f6c\u548c\u6362\u624b\u7387\u4e0a\u5931\u6548\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u4e00\u63d0\u7684\u662f\uff0cHou, Xue, and Zhang (2015)\u4ee5\u53caFama and French (2015)\u8fd1\u671f\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u539f\u6709\u4e09\u56e0\u5b50\u4e0a\u52a0\u5165\u76c8\u5229\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u56e0\u5b50\u6784\u5efaFF-5\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u672c\u6587\u7684CH-3\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u5f02\u8c61\uff0c\u89e3\u91ca\u80fd\u529b\u540c\u65f6\u5b8c\u5168\u8d85\u8d8aFF-5\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u8bba<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u4f7f\u7528\u542b\u6709\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u60c5\u7684\u591a\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\uff08CH-3\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u80fd\u4f7f\u7528\u7b80\u5355\u590d\u5236Fama and French (1993)\u7684FF-3\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6784\u5efa\u4e2d\u56fd\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u9700\u6392\u9664\u5e02\u503c\u6700\u5c0f30%\u516c\u53f8\u540e\u6784\u5efa\u6240\u6709\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u5c0f\u5e02\u503c\u80a1\u7968\u53d7\u5230\u58f3\u8d44\u6e90\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u6c61\u67d3\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u5904\u7406\u540e\u7684\u56e0\u5b50\u8868\u73b0\u663e\u8457\u4f18\u4e8e\u4f7f\u7528\u6240\u6709\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\u6784\u5efa\u7684\u56e0\u5b50\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

Fama and French (1992)\u53d1\u73b0\u8d26\u9762\u5e02\u503c\u6bd4(BM)\u66f4\u80fd\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u53d1\u73b0\u76c8\u5229\u5e02\u4ef7\u6bd4(EP)\u66f4\u80fd\u8861\u91cf\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u56e0\u5b50\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e2d\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u7684CH-3\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u4e3aFF-3\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u4e0e\u4ef7\u503c\u56e0\u5b50\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff0c\u800cFF-3\u6a21\u578b\u5219\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u80fd\u4e3aCH-3\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u56e0\u5b50\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u56fd\u6a2a\u622a\u9762\u5f02\u8c61\u5171\u67099\u5927\u7c7b\uff1a\u5e02\u503c\u3001\u4ef7\u503c\u3001\u76c8\u5229\u3001\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u3001\u6536\u76ca\u53cd\u8f6c\u3001\u6362\u624b\u7387\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u3001\u5e94\u8ba1\u5229\u6da6\u548c\u4f4e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u76f8\u5bf9CAPM\u6a21\u578b\u663e\u8457\u7684\u5f02\u8c61\u5171\u67096\u5927\u7c7b\uff1a\u5e02\u503c\u3001\u4ef7\u503c\u3001\u76c8\u5229\u3001\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u3001\u6536\u76ca\u53cd\u8f6c\u548c\u6362\u624b\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\u89e3\u91ca\u5f02\u8c61\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e2d\uff0cCH-3\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u80fd\u529b\u660e\u663e\u4f18\u4e8eFF-3\u6a21\u578b\u3002FF-3\u4ec5\u80fd\u89e3\u91ca\u5e02\u503c\u5f02\u8c61\uff0cCH-3\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u89e3\u91ca\u5e02\u503c\u3001\u4ef7\u503c\u3001\u76c8\u5229\u548c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u5f02\u8c61\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u539f\u6587\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n

Liu, Jianan, Robert Stambaugh and Yu Yuan, Size and Value in China.\u00a0Journal of Financial Economics<\/em>, Forthcoming<\/em>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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