{"id":20562,"date":"2018-11-30T10:55:37","date_gmt":"2018-11-30T02:55:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kuaiqikan.com\/?p=20562"},"modified":"2018-11-30T10:55:37","modified_gmt":"2018-11-30T02:55:37","slug":"lun-wen-dao-du-gong-ying-lian-ji-zhong-du-yu-shen-ji-yi-jian-gou-mai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kuaiqikan.com\/lun-wen-dao-du-gong-ying-lian-ji-zhong-du-yu-shen-ji-yi-jian-gou-mai\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8bba\u6587\u5bfc\u8bfb | \u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u96c6\u4e2d\u5ea6\u4e0e\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u672c\u671f\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f1a\u8ba1\u5b66\u4f1a\u201d\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\u4e3a\u60a8\u63a8\u9001\u7684\u662f\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e\u300a\u4f1a\u8ba1\u7814\u7a76\u300b2018\u5e74\u7b2c8\u671f\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff1a\u300a\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u96c6\u4e2d\u5ea6\u4e0e\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u300b<\/strong>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u859b\u00a0\u723d\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>\u8000\u53cb\u798f\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>\u738b\u96ea\u65b9<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u3001\u539f\u6587\u6458\u8981<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u7684\u76d1\u7ba1\u4e0e\u6cbb\u7406\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u548c\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u6240\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u672c\u6587\u4ee52010-2016\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fdA\u80a1\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\u4e3a\u6837\u672c\uff0c<\/span>\u8fd0\u7528Lennox(2000)\u7684\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8003\u5bdf\u4e86\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u96c6\u4e2d\u5ea6\u9a71\u52a8\u4e0b\u7684\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u53ca\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/strong>\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546-\u5ba2\u6237\u96c6\u4e2d\u5ea6\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u8d8a\u53ef\u80fd\u8fdb\u884c\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\uff0c\u4ece\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u52a8\u673a\u770b\uff0c\u5728\u4e0e\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u6216\u5ba2\u6237\u8bae\u4ef7\u80fd\u529b\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u96c6\u4e2d\u5ea6\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u884c\u4e3a\u66f4\u663e\u8457;\u4ece\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u5ba2\u89c2\u6761\u4ef6\u770b\uff0c\u4ece\u603b\u6240\u5411\u5206\u6240\u53d8\u66f4\u65f6\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u96c6\u4e2d\u5ea6\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u66f4\u6613\u4e8e\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4e0e\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u6216\u5ba2\u6237\u5171\u4eab\u540c\u4e00\u5ba1\u8ba1\u5e08\u80fd\u591f\u51cf\u5c11\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u5173\u7cfb\u538b\u529b\u4e0b\u7684\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u3002<\/span>\u672c\u6587\u9996\u6b21\u4ece\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u89c6\u89d2\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u7684\u52a8\u56e0\u53ca\u6210\u529f\u5b9e\u73b0\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4e8c\u3001\u9009\u9898\u610f\u4e49<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u4f1a\u76f4\u63a5\u635f\u5bb3\u5ba1\u8ba1\u5e08\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u548c\u5ba1\u8ba1\u8d28\u91cf(Chen et al., 2016)\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u4f1a\u8ba1\u4fe1\u606f\u4f7f\u7528\u8005\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u6548\u7387\u53ca\u5176\u5207\u8eab\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u6210\u4e3a\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u548c\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u91cd\u70b9\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u73b0\u6709\u5173\u4e8e\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u5b58\u5728\u6027\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u8bba\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\uff1a<\/strong>\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u6587\u732e\u53d1\u73b0\u516c\u53f8\u80fd\u591f\u6210\u529f\u5b9e\u73b0\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70(Lennox, 2000;\u5434\u8054\u751f\uff0c2005; Chen et al. 2016)\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e9b\u5219\u672a\u53d1\u73b0\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u7684\u8bc1\u636e(Krishnan and Stephens, 1994; \u9646\u6b63\u98de\u7b49\uff0c2003)\u3002\u8981\u9a8c\u8bc1\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u663e\u7136\u9700\u8981\u9996\u5148\u8bc6\u522b\u6709\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u52a8\u673a\u7684\u5acc\u7591\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\u3002\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6587\u732e\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0a\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u975e\u6807\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u662f\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u8005\u3002\u9664\u6b64\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c<\/span>\u73b0\u6709\u6587\u732e\u8f83\u5c11\u8003\u8651\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u52a8\u56e0\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u4ece\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u89c6\u89d2\u4e3a\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u7684\u52a8\u56e0\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c<\/strong>\u5e76\u5c06\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u96c6\u4e2d\u5ea6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u540e\u679c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7ec6\u5316\u81f3\u4f1a\u8ba1\u5e08\u4e8b\u52a1\u6240\u603b\u6240\u548c\u5206\u6240\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u4e30\u5bcc\u4e86\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u548c\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7ba1\u7406\u4e24\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u5b9e\u52a1\u4e0a\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3001\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u7b49\u8bc6\u522b\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u5173\u7cfb\u4e0b\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u5e76\u8fdb\u884c\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u4ef7\u503c\u53c2\u8003\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e09\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ca\u903b\u8f91<\/span><\/p>\n

\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u7ed3\u5408\u5236\u5ea6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u51c6\u79df\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546-\u5ba2\u6237\u5173\u7cfb\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\u7684\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u884c\u4e3a\u3002<\/strong>\u6211\u4eec\u501f\u9274Lennox(2000)\u7684\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u6d4b\u5ea6\u516c\u53f8\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u52a8\u673a\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u91c7\u7528\u516c\u53f8\u5e74\u62a5\u4e2d\u62ab\u9732\u7684\u201c\u4ece\u524d\u4e94\u540d\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u7684\u5408\u8ba1\u91c7\u8d2d\u91d1\u989d\u5360\u5168\u5e74\u91c7\u8d2d\u603b\u989d\u4e4b\u6bd4\u4f8b\u201d\u8861\u91cf\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u96c6\u4e2d\u5ea6;\u7528\u201c\u5411\u524d\u4e94\u540d\u5ba2\u6237\u7684\u5408\u8ba1\u9500\u552e\u91d1\u989d\u5360\u5168\u5e74\u9500\u552e\u603b\u989d\u4e4b\u6bd4\u4f8b\u201d\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5ba2\u6237\u96c6\u4e2d\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u52a8\u673a\u7684\u5f3a\u5f31\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002<\/strong>\u672c\u6587\u5206\u522b\u4ece\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u503c\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u4efd\u989d\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u6765\u523b\u753b\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u4e2d\u8bae\u4ef7\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u9ad8\u4f4e\uff0c\u8003\u5bdf\u4e86\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u8bae\u4ef7\u80fd\u529b\u5bf9\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u96c6\u4e2d\u5ea6\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u5ba1\u8ba1\u610f\u89c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4e3a\u7f13\u89e3\u5185\u751f\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5206\u522b\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u4e24\u9636\u6bb5IV-Probit \u6a21\u578b\u3001Heckman\u4e24\u9636\u6bb5\u6cd5\u3001\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206\u5339\u914d\u6cd5(PSM)\u548c\u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u68c0\u9a8c(Granger Causality\u00a0Test)\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56db\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u8bba<\/span><\/p>\n

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