{"id":19705,"date":"2018-08-14T15:12:30","date_gmt":"2018-08-14T07:12:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.kuaiqikan.com\/?p=19705"},"modified":"2018-08-14T15:12:30","modified_gmt":"2018-08-14T07:12:30","slug":"qi-kan-lun-wen-xie-zuo-zhi-nan-shi-shang-zui-quan-xie-zuo-yao-dian-guo-duan-shou-cang","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kuaiqikan.com\/qi-kan-lun-wen-xie-zuo-zhi-nan-shi-shang-zui-quan-xie-zuo-yao-dian-guo-duan-shou-cang\/","title":{"rendered":"\u671f\u520a\u8bba\u6587\u5199\u4f5c\u6307\u5357\uff0c\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5168\u5199\u4f5c\u8981\u70b9\uff0c\u679c\u65ad\u6536\u85cf\uff01"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u5bfc\u8bfb<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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1<\/span>\u00a0 <\/span>\u8bba\u6587\u7ed3\u6784<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4e00\u7bc7\u597d\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u65e5\u5fd7\u3002\u8bfb\u8005\u5e76\u4e0d\u5728\u4e4e\u4f60\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5f97\u5230\u6b63\u786e\u7b54\u6848\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5728\u4e4e\u4f60\u7684\u4e0a\u767e\u6b21\u7684\u3001\u4ee5\u5931\u8d25\u544a\u7ec8\u7684\u5c1d\u8bd5\u3002\u628a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5185\u5bb9\u653e\u5230\u4f60\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u56de\u5fc6\u5f55\u4e2d\u5427.<\/span>\u6458\u8981<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5f15\u8a00<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5f15\u8a00\u7684\u7bc7\u5e45\u5b9c\u4ee5\u4e09\u9875\u4e3a\u9650.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u5f88\u591a\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u6587\u732e\u7efc\u8ff0\u6d0b\u6d0b\u6d12\u6d12\uff0c\u4e00\u53d1\u4e0d\u53ef\u6536\u62fe\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u5f15\u7528\u76f8\u5173\u9886\u57df\u91cc\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u732e\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u6309\u7167Journal of Economic Literature\uff08\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6587\u732e\u7efc\u8ff0\u300b\u671f\u520a\uff09\u7684\u884c\u6587\u98ce\u683c\u6765\u64b0\u5199\u7efc\u8ff0\u3002<\/span>\u6587\u732e\u7efc\u8ff0\u7684\u8981\u70b9\u5728\u4e8e\u5c06\u4f60\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u548c\u6700\u4e3a\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u3001\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u4e24\u4e09\u7bc7\u6587\u732e\u533a\u522b\u5f00\u6765\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6070\u5f53\u5730\u80af\u5b9a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f5c\u8005\u6240\u505a\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u67d0\u4e9b\u5185\u5bb9\u88ab\u8bef\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u4f60\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u3002<\/strong>\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u5bf9\u201c\u7b56\u7565\u6027\u5f15\u7528\u201d\u9887\u4e3a\u987e\u8651\uff1b\u4ed6\u4eec\u5927\u91cf\u5f15\u7528\u67d0\u4eba\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u5411\u4e3b\u7f16\u6697\u793a\u6b64\u4eba\u662f\u5ba1\u7a3f\u4eba\u7684\u5408\u9002\u4eba\u9009\uff0c\u4e5f\u60f3\u786e\u4fdd\u5ba1\u7a3f\u4eba\u80fd\u5728\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u770b\u5230\u4ed6\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u88ab\u5927\u91cf\u5f15\u7528\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u5426\u5f97\u4f53\u59d1\u4e14\u4e0d\u8bba\uff0c\u5728\u8bba\u6587\u7ec8\u7a3f\u91cc\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e26\u6c34\u4efd\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u5e94\u8be5\u5220\u6389\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6b63\u6587<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5e94\u8be5\u9075\u5faa\u7684\u539f\u5219\u662f\uff1a\u53ea\u6709\u90a3\u4e9b\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u8bfb\u8005\u7406\u89e3\u4e3b\u8981\u7ed3\u8bba\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u653e\u5728\u4e3b\u8981\u7ed3\u8bba\u7684\u524d\u9762\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4e0d\u8981\u5efa\u7acb\u201c\u4e00\u822c\u5316\u7684\u201d\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8bf4\u201c\u5728\u5b9e\u8bc1\u90e8\u5206\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u51b2\u51fb\u7b80\u5316\u4e3aAR(1)\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff1b\u5047\u8bbe\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u4f01\u4e1a\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fde\u7eed\u96c6\uff1b\u5047\u8bbe\u884c\u4e3a\u4eba\u5177\u6709\u4e8c\u6b21\u578b\u6548\u7528\u51fd\u6570\u201d\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u53ea\u9700\u5efa\u7acb\u3001\u6c42\u89e3\u4e0e\u6570\u636e\u76f8\u5339\u914d\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u7ed3\u8bba<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u9644\u5f55<\/strong><\/p>\n

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2<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u8bba\u6587\u5199\u4f5c<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u57fa\u672c\u8981\u70b9<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u8bba\u662f\u8bba\u6587\u6574\u4f53\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u67b6\u6784\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u5fae\u89c2\u6bb5\u843d\u7684\u884c\u6587\uff0c\u5e94\u9075\u5faa\u5982\u4e0b\u539f\u5219\uff1a\u201c<\/span>\u5148\u8bf4\u660e\u4f60\u505a\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u800c\u540e\u89e3\u91ca\u5b83\uff0c\u518d\u628a\u5b83\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u5907\u9009\u5bf9\u8c61\u6216\u65b9\u6cd5\u6b65\u9aa4\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002<\/strong>\u201d\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u63cf\u8ff0\u6570\u636e\u5904\u7406\u65f6\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u5148\u8bf4\u201c\u6211\u5c06\u6536\u5165\u9664\u4ee5\u4e86\u5bb6\u5ead\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u6570\u7684\u5e73\u65b9\u6839\u201d\uff1b\u7136\u540e\u89e3\u91ca\u8fd9\u6837\u8c03\u6574\u6536\u5165\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u8ba8\u8bba\u5176\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u8c03\u6574\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u7136\u800c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u884c\u6587\u987a\u5e8f\u6070\u6070\u76f8\u53cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u9884\u89c8\u4e0b\u6587\u548c\u56de\u987e\u524d\u6587\u5f80\u5f80\u6807\u5fd7\u7740\u884c\u6587\u7ed3\u6784\u6df7\u4e71\u3002\u201c\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5728\u8868\u683c6 \u4f1a\u770b\u5230\u7684\u201d\uff0c\u201c\u56de\u987e\u7b2c1 \u8be5\u6587\uff08Bond Risk Premia\uff09\u7cfb\u4f5c\u8005\u548cMonika Piazzesi \u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u53d1\u8868\u5728American Economic Review 2005 \u5e74\u7b2c1 \u671f\uff0c\u5176\u7f51\u4e0a\u9644\u5f55\u517131 \u9875\u3002\u2014\u8bd1\u8005\u6ce8\u4e8c\u8282\u201d\uff0c\u201c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ed3\u679c\u6982\u8ff0\u4e86\u7b2c\u56db\u8282\u7684\u66f4\u591a\u5206\u6790\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u53e5\u5b50\u90fd\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u6587\u7ae0\u5185\u5bb9\u7684\u987a\u5e8f\u5e76\u672a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6e05\u695a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u529b\u6c42\u51c6\u786e\u3002\u4ed4\u7ec6\u7814\u8bfb\u6bcf\u4e2a\u53e5\u5b50\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u53e5\u5b50\u90fd\u8a00\u4e4b\u6709\u7269\u5417\uff1f\u6bcf\u53e5\u8bdd\u90fd\u8a00\u5fc5\u6709\u4e2d\u5417\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u811a\u6ce8<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e00\u822c\u8bfb\u8005\u786e\u5b9e\u53ef\u4ee5\u8df3\u8fc7\u3001\u4f46\u5c11\u6570\u8bfb\u8005\u4e3a\u4e86\u7406\u89e3\u67d0\u5904\u800c\u53ef\u80fd\u613f\u610f\u4e86\u89e3\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u624d\u9700\u8981\u811a\u6ce8\u3002\u957f\u4e32\u7684\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\u3001\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u63a8\u5bfc\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u7814\u7a76\u6b65\u9aa4\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u91c7\u7528\u811a\u6ce8\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8868\u683c<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u6b63\u786e\u4fdd\u7559\u6709\u6548\u6570\u5b57\u7684\u4f4d\u6570\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u7167\u642c\u8ba1\u91cf\u8f6f\u4ef6\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u4e00\u4f30\u8ba1\u7cfb\u6570\u662f4.56783\uff0c\u6807\u51c6\u8bef\u662f0.6789\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f30\u8ba1\u7cfb\u6570\u5e94\u5199\u62104.6\uff0c\u6807\u51c6\u8bef\u5e94\u5199\u62100.7\u3002\u5bf9\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5c0f\u6570\u70b9\u540e\u4e24\u5230\u4e09\u4f4d\u6709\u6548\u6570\u5b57\u8db3\u77e3\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5408\u7406\u4f7f\u7528\u91cf\u7eb2\u3002\u7528\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u5c31\u4e0d\u9519\u3002\u62a5\u544a2.3\uff0c\u800c\u975e0.0000023\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u8bfb\u8005\u4f1a\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u7406\u89e3\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56fe\u5f62<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f18\u7f8e\u7684\u56fe\u5f62\u80fd\u8ba9\u6587\u7ae0\u5bcc\u6709\u751f\u6c14\u3002\u4e0e\u5197\u957f\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u8868\u683c\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u56fe\u5f62\u80fd\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u8868\u8fbe\u6570\u636e\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u548c\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002\u4e11\u964b\u6216\u4e0d\u5f53\u7684\u56fe\u5f62\u53ea\u4f1a\u6d6a\u8d39\u7bc7\u5e45\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u56fe\u5f62\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u81ea\u6210\u4e00\u4f53\u7684\u8bf4\u660e\u6587\u5b57\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5e94\u8be5\u5305\u62ec\u56fe\u5f62\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6807\u8bc6\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u3002\u5e94\u5bf9\u5750\u6807\u8f74\u8fdb\u884c\u6807\u6ce8\u3002\u5408\u7406\u8fd0\u7528\u91cf\u7eb2\u3002\u4e0d\u8981\u7528\u70b9\u7ebf\u7ed8\u56fe\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u590d\u5370\u4ee5\u540e\u4f1a\u6a21\u7cca\u4e0d\u6e05\u3002\u4e0d\u8981\u4f7f\u7528\u865a\u7ebf\u7ed8\u5236\u6ce2\u52a8\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u5e8f\u5217\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5199\u4f5c\u8981\u70b9<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5199\u4f5c\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u662f\u8981\u4e00\u76f4\u7559\u610f\u8bfb\u8005\u5df2\u7ecf\u77e5\u9053\u4ec0\u4e48\u3001\u5c1a\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002\u5927\u591a\u6570\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u8bfb\u8005\u638c\u63e1\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5934\u8111\u4e2d\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u50a8\u5b58\u6bcf\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u7ec6\u8282\u3002\u8981\u7ecf\u5e38\u7559\u610f\u54ea\u4e9b\u662f\u4f60\u5df2\u7ecf\u89e3\u91ca\u8fc7\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u54ea\u4e9b\u662f\u5c1a\u672a\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u5185\u5bb9.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bfb\u8005\u6700\u5173\u5fc3\u7684\u662f\u7406\u89e3\u4f60\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u8981\u70b9\u3002<\/strong>\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u7406\u89e3\u4f60\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u8981\u70b9\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bf9\u4f60\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u505a\u4efb\u4f55\u8bc4\u8bba\u3002\u6211\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u4e0d\u8a00\u81ea\u660e\u2014\u5148\u9648\u8ff0\u5e76\u89e3\u91ca\u4f60\u6240\u505a\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u540e\u518d\u4f50\u8bc1\u4f60\u6240\u505a\u7684\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u5c06\u5b83\u540c\u5176\u5b83\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f5c\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f7f\u7528\u4e3b\u52a8\u8bed\u6001\u3002\u4e0d\u8981\u5199\uff1a\u201c\u03c4 \u503c\u88ab\u8bbe\u4e3a3\u201d\uff0c\u201c\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u88ab\u8fd9\u6837\u6784\u9020\u201d\u3002\u7a76\u7adf\u8c01\u505a\u4e86\u5047\u8bbe\u548c\u6784\u9020\u5462\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bf7\u5728\u6587\u4e2d\u641c\u7d22\u201c\u88ab\u201d\uff0c\u5c06\u6240\u6709\u88ab\u52a8\u8bed\u6001\u7edf\u7edf\u6362\u6389\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4f7f\u7528\u201c\u6211\u201d\u6ca1\u4ec0\u4e48\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5728\u72ec\u7acb\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u8fc7\u4e8e\u4e25\u8083\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u201d\u3002\u201c\u6211\u5047\u8bbe\u03c4\u7b49\u4e8e3\u201d\uff0c\u201c\u6211\u6784\u9020\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5982\u4e0b\u201d\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6709\u201c\u6211\u201d\u7528\u5f97\u592a\u591a\u4e4b\u5acc\uff0c\u5e38\u6709\u529e\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8bed\u8a00\u7eaf\u5316\u8bba\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8868\u683c\u662f\u4e0d\u80fd\u7528\u4f5c\u4e3b\u8bed\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u201c\u88685 \u5217\u51fa\u4e86\u4f30\u8ba1\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\u8fd9\u6837\u5199\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u5199\u6210\u201c\u6211\u5728\u88685 \u4e2d\u5217\u51fa\u4e86\u4f30\u8ba1\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\u3002\u6211\u81ea\u5df1\u5e38\u4f7f\u7528\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u201d\u6307\u4ee3\u201c\u4f60\u4eec\uff08\u8bfb\u8005\uff09\u548c\u6211\u201d\uff0c\u7528\u201c\u4f60\uff08\u4eec\uff09\u201d\u6307\u4ee3\u8bfb\u8005\u3002\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u88685 \u4e2d\u7684\u7cfb\u6570\u5448U \u578b\u201d\u6216\u8005\u201c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u7cfb\u6570\u5448U \u578b\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8868\u8ff0\u5c31\u6bd4\u8f83\u597d\u3002\u201cU \u578b\u7684\u7cfb\u6570\u80fd\u88ab\u770b\u5230\u201d\uff08\u88ab\u52a8\u8bed\u6001\uff09\u6216\u8005\u201c\u4eba\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230U \u578b\u7684\u7cfb\u6570\u201d\uff08\u7a76\u7adf\u662f\u8c01\u5462\uff1f\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8868\u8ff0\u5c31\u6bd4\u8f83\u7cdf\u7cd5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5199\u4f5c\u62d9\u52a3\u7684\u75c5\u6839\u662f\u4f5c\u8005\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u8bf4\u51fa\u53bb\u7684\u8bdd\u8d1f\u8d23\u4efb\u3002<\/strong>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f5c\u8005\u6ee5\u7528\u88ab\u52a8\u8bed\u6001\uff0c\u201c\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u5e94\u8be5\u88ab\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u201d\uff0c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6df7\u4e71\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u94fa\u9648\u6587\u732e\u6700\u540e\u624d\u9610\u660e\u4f5c\u8005\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u75c7\u72b6\u3002\u6df1\u547c\u5438\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u52c7\u6562\u5730\u5bf9\u4f60\u81ea\u5df1\u5199\u7684\u6587\u5b57\u8d1f\u8d77\u8d23\u4efb\u6765\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6700\u597d\u91c7\u7528\u4e00\u822c\u73b0\u5728\u65f6\u3002\u5373\u4fbf1993 \u5e74\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fc7\u53bb\u8bb8\u4e45\uff0c\u4f60\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u201cFama and French (1993)find\u2026\u201d\u3002\u8c08\u5230\u4f60\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u65f6\u4e5f\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\uff1b\u9610\u8ff0\u4f60\u5728\u88685 \u4e2d\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5728\u88685 \u4e2d\u5c06\u8981\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u8981\u4fdd\u6301\u65f6\u6001\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/strong>\u4e0d\u8981\u5728\u4e00\u6bb5\u7684\u5f00\u5934\u7528\u8fc7\u53bb\u65f6\u6001\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u7ed3\u5c3e\u5374\u7528\u5c06\u6765\u65f6\u6001\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f7f\u7528\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u53e5\u5b50\u7ed3\u6784\uff1a\u5148\u4e3b\u8bed\uff0c\u540e\u8c13\u8bed\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u662f\u5bbe\u8bed\u3002<\/strong>\u4e0d\u8981\u5199\u201c\u884c\u4e3a\u4e3b\u4f53\u5728\u9762\u4e34\u6682\u65f6\u6027\u6536\u5165\u6ce2\u52a8\u65f6\u7528\u6765\u5e73\u6ed1\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u4fdd\u9669\u673a\u5236\u662f\u4e94\u82b1\u516b\u95e8\u7684\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u5e94\u8be5\u5199\uff1a\u201c\u4eba\u4eec\u91c7\u7528\u591a\u79cd\u4fdd\u9669\u673a\u5236\u5e73\u6ed1\u6d88\u8d39\u201d\u3002\uff08\u6211\u5c06\u201c\u884c\u4e3a\u4e3b\u4f53\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u523b\u677f\u7684\u8bcd\u6c47\u6362\u6210\u4e86\u66f4\u4e3a\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u201c\u4eba\u4eec\u201d\uff0c\u7528\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u201c\u591a\u79cd\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u66ff\u6362\u4e86\u82b1\u54e8\u7684\u201c\u4e94\u82b1\u516b\u95e8\u201d\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u6574\u53e5\u90fd\u5e94\u5220\u6389\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u53e5\u8bdd\u53ea\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5f15\u51fa\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4fdd\u9669\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6bb5\u843d\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u201c\u6e05\u55d3\u5b50\u201d\u822c\u7684\u53e5\u5b50\uff0c\u8fdd\u53cd\u4e86\u8a00\u4e4b\u6709\u7269\u7684\u539f\u5219\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u8fd0\u7528\u5404\u79cd\u4fdd\u9669\u673a\u5236\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5e76\u4e0d\u65b0\u9c9c\uff0c\u65b0\u9c9c\u7684\u662f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u5236\u7684\u5185\u5bb9.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u907f\u514d\u4f7f\u7528\u4e13\u4e1a\u672f\u8bed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5199\u4f5c\u8981\u5177\u4f53\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u62bd\u8c61\u3002\uff08\u8fd9\u91cc\u5e94\u8be5\u63d2\u5165\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u5b9e\u4f8b\u3002\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5199\u4f5c\u5c0f\u7a8d\u95e8<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u8981\u7528\u5f62\u5bb9\u8bcd\u63cf\u8ff0\u4f60\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5982\u201c\u60ca\u4eba\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\u3001\u201c\u975e\u5e38\u663e\u8457\u7684\u201d\u7cfb\u6570\uff0c\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u914d\u5f97\u4e0a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5f62\u5bb9\u8bcd\uff0c\u4e16\u4eba\u4f1a\u5982\u6b64\u8d5e\u8a89\u4f60\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u82e5\u5fc5\u987b\u4f7f\u7528\u5f62\u5bb9\u8bcd\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u4f7f\u7528\u53cc\u91cd\u5f62\u5bb9\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u80af\u5b9a\u4e0d\u662f\u201c\u975e\u5e38\u65b0\u9896\u7684\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f7f\u7528\u7b80\u77ed\u7684\u8bcd\u6c47\uff0c\u52ff\u7528\u7e41\u590d\u82b1\u54e8\u7684\u8bcd\u6c47\u3002\u201c\u7528\uff08use\uff09\u201d\u6bd4\u201c\u5229\u7528(utilize)\u201d\u597d\uff0c\u201c\u82e5\u5e72(several)\u201d\u6bd4\u201c\u591a\u79cd\u591a\u6837\u7684\uff08diverse\uff09\u201d\u597d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u662f\u4e2a\u60ef\u4f8b\uff1a\u4f18\u79c0\u7684\u4f5c\u5bb6\u901a\u5e38\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ece\u53e5\u5f15\u5bfc\u8bcd\u201c\u8fd9\u6837\uff08that\uff09\u201d\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6240\u6709\u5185\u5bb9\u90fd\u5e94\u5220\u6389.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u91cd\u8bfb\u4e0a\u4e00\u53e5\u4e2d\u201c\u4ece\u53e5\u201d\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u4f1a\u6709\u6240\u4f53\u4f1a\u4e86\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u201c\u5e94\u8be5\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u201d\u5c31\u975e\u5e38\u5197\u8d58\u3002\u5f00\u95e8\u89c1\u5c71\uff0c\u8bf4\u4f60\u6240\u60f3\u8bf4\u7684\u5373\u53ef\u3002\u201c\u8868\u660e\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u7684\u201d\u5176\u5b9e\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5e76\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u6587\u4e2d\u641c\u7d22\u201c\u8fd9\u6837\uff08that\uff09\u201d\u5e76\u5220\u6389\u5b83\u4eec\u5427\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u8bf7\u5220\u6389\u201c\u6b64\u5904\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u7279\u522b\u8bf4\u660e\u4e00\u4e0b\u201d\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8bdd\u3002\u76f4\u63a5\u8bf4\u660e\u5c31\u662f\u4e86\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bcd\u53e5\u90fd\u8fdd\u53cd\u4e86\u8a00\u5fc5\u6709\u4e2d\u7684\u539f\u5219\u3002\u53e5\u4e2d\u7684\u8981\u70b9\u771f\u7684\u201c\u5e94\u8be5\u88ab\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u201d\u5417\uff1f\u6291\u6216\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u5e72\u5df4\u5df4\u5730\u5f15\u51fa\u4e86\u8bdd\u9898\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7ed9\u5b64\u7acb\u7684\u201c\u8fd9\uff08this\uff09\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u52a0\u4e2a\u5bf9\u8c61\u3002\u201c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u786e\u662f\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7684\u201e\u201e\u201d \u201c\u8fd9\u201d\u6307\u7684\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u5462\uff1f\u201c\u8fd9\u201d\u7684\u540e\u9762\u6c38\u8fdc\u5e94\u8be5\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u5185\u5bb9\u3002\u201c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56de\u5f52\u8868\u660e\u201e\u201e\u201d\u5c31\u5f88\u597d\u3002\u66f4\u4e00\u822c\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\uff08\u4e0d\u5bf9\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u5e94\u8be5\u5199\u6210\u201c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89c4\u5219\u201d\uff09\u53ef\u5e2e\u52a9\u4f60\u907f\u514d\u201c\u8fd9\u201d\u6307\u4ee3\u524d\u6587\u4e0d\u660e\u786e\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u3002\u901a\u5e38\u8bfb\u8005\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u8bb0\u5fc6\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f1a\u6709\u4e24\u4e09\u9879\u4e8b\u7269\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4ee3\u8bcd\u201c\u8fd9\u201d\u6765\u6307\u4ee3\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fde\u5b57\u7b26\u5e38\u88ab\u8bef\u7528\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u662fJFE\uff08Journal of Financial Economics\uff09\u7684\u4f53\u4f8b\uff1a\u201c\u8fde\u5b57\u7b26\u53ef\u7528\u6765\u8fde\u63a5\u540d\u8bcd\u524d\u9762\u7684\u590d\u5408\u4fee\u9970\u8bed\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cafter-tax income, risk-free rate, two-day return, three-digit SIC\u00a0code, value-weighted index\uff09\uff1b\u82e5\u540d\u8bcd\u524d\u9762\u7684\u4fee\u9970\u8bcd\u662f\u4ee5\u201ely\u201f\u7ed3\u5c3e\u7684\u526f\u8bcd\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cpreviously acquired subsidiary, equally weighted index, publicly traded stock\uff09\uff0c\u4e0d\u9002\u7528\u8fde\u5b57\u7b26\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u4e0d\u4ea7\u751f\u6b67\u4e49\uff0c\u8fde\u5b57\u7b26\u90fd\u53ef\u7701\u7565\uff0c\u4f46\u5168\u6587\u5e94\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u201d\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u8fde\u5b57\u7b26\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u5f3a\u5236\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5927\u53ef\u4e0d\u5fc5\u751f\u9020\u51fa\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u602a\u7269\u8bcd\u6c47\u201ccontinually-rebalanced-equally-weighted portfolio\u201d\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5219\u4e0d\u5fc5\u4f7f\u7528\u8fde\u5b57\u7b26\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u201cThe paper focuses on small-stocks.\u201d \uff08\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u8fde\u5b57\u7b26\u5e94\u8be5\u53bb\u6389\u3002\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u53e5\u5b50\u4e2d\u8981\u5c3d\u91cf\u51cf\u5c11\u4ece\u53e5\u7684\u6570\u91cf\uff1b\u5c3d\u91cf\u51cf\u5c11\u7528\u6807\u70b9\u5206\u9694\u7684\u3001\u975e\u72ec\u7acb\u53e5\u5b50\u6210\u5206\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cWhere\u201d\u6307\u4ee3\u5730\u70b9\u3002\u201cIn which\u201d\u6307\u4ee3\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u4e0d\u8981\u5199\u201cmodels where consumers have uninsured shocks\u201d\uff0c\u8981\u5199\u201cmodels in which consumers have uninsured shocks\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4e0d\u8981\u4ee5\u98ce\u96c5\u7684\u540d\u8a00\u8b66\u53e5\u5f00\u5934\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u6bcf\u4e2a\u53e5\u5b50\u5fc5\u987b\u6709\u4e3b\u8bed\u3001\u8c13\u8bed\u548c\u5bbe\u8bed\u3002\u53e5\u5b50\u4e0d\u80fd\u50cf\u201cNo sentence like this\u201d\u8fd9\u6837\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

3<\/span>\u00a0 <\/span>\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8bc0\u7a8d<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e09\u70b9\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u8bc6\u522b\uff08identification\uff09\u3001\u56e0\u679c\u8bc6\u522b\u3001\u56e0\u679c\u8bc6\u522b\u3002<\/strong>\u52a1\u5fc5\u9610\u660e\u56e0\u679c\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u8981\u7406\u89e3\u56e0\u679c\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff09\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u53ef\u5f52\u7ed3\u4e3a\u201cA \u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86B\u201d\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u7528\u67d0\u79cd\u56de\u5f52\u4f30\u8ba1\u8fdb\u884c\u4f50\u8bc1\u3002\u4f60\u8981\u89e3\u91ca\u4f60\u6240\u770b\u5230\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u88ab\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

1. \u8981\u63cf\u8ff0\u54ea\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u673a\u5236\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\uff08\u53f3\u8fb9\u53d8\u91cf\uff09\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4e0a\u5929\u8d50\u7ed9\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\u662f\u5c11\u4e4b\u53c8\u5c11\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

2. \u8981\u63cf\u8ff0\u6e05\u695a\u6b8b\u5dee\u4e2d\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u54ea\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u673a\u5236\u3002\u9664\u53f3\u8fb9\u53d8\u91cf\uff08\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\uff09\u5916\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5de6\u8fb9\u53d8\u91cf\uff08\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\uff09\u53d8\u52a8\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u8fd8\u6709\u54ea\u4e9b\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

3. \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u4ece\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u8bf4\u660e\u6270\u52a8\u9879\u4e3a\u4f55\u4e0e\u53f3\u8fb9\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0d\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u9664\u975e\u4f60\u505a\u597d\u4e86\u524d\u9762\u4e24\u9879\uff0c\u8981\u4e0d\u7136\u4f60\u65e0\u6cd5\u89e3\u91ca\u6e05\u695a\u8fd9\u4e00\u5173\u952e\u5047\u8bbe\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

4. \u4ece\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u8bf4\u660e\u4e3a\u4f55\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0e\u53f3\u8fb9\u53d8\u91cf\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0e\u6270\u52a8\u9879\u4e0d\u76f8\u5173\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

5. \u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u548c\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u5c06y \u5bf9x \u56de\u5f52\uff0c\u4f55\u65f6z \u5e94\u4f5c\u4e3a\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u52a0\u5230\u53f3\u8fb9\uff0c\u4f55\u65f6z \u5e94\u4f5c\u4e3ax \u7684\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

6. \u5bf9\u4f60\u6240\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f30\u8ba1\u6570\u5b57\uff0c\u8981\u8bf4\u660e\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u54ea\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u4f30\u8ba1\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u52a0\u5165\u56fa\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u4f1a\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u5728\u56de\u5f52\u65b9\u7a0b\u4e2d\u52a0\u5165\u516c\u53f8\u56fa\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94\u540e\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u516c\u53f8\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u65f6\u53d8\u56e0\u7d20\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570\u3002\u82e5\u56de\u5f52\u65b9\u7a0b\u4e2d\u6ca1\u6709\u52a0\u5165\u516c\u53f8\u56fa\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570\u5f80\u5f80\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5728\u67d0\u4e00\u65f6\u523b\u4e0a\u5404\u4e2a\u516c\u53f8\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

7. \u4f60\u786e\u4fe1\u4f60\u770b\u5230\u7684\u662f\u9700\u6c42\u66f2\u7ebf\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4f9b\u7ed9\u66f2\u7ebf\u5417\uff1f\u8981\u60f3\u6f84\u6e05\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8bf7\u81ea\u95ee\u201c\u4f60\u5728\u5bf9\u8c01\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5efa\u6a21\uff1f\u201d\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4f60\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u662f\u5229\u7387\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u4f4f\u623f\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u5e76\u7528\u65b0\u589e\u8d37\u6b3e\u91cf\u5bf9\u5229\u7387\u4f5c\u56de\u5f52\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u5bfc\u81f4\u4f4f\u623f\u9700\u6c42\u53d8\u5f97\u5f88\u5927\u65f6\uff0c\u4f4f\u623f\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u9700\u6c42\uff08\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0e\u4f4f\u623f\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u9700\u6c42\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5176\u5b83\u8d37\u6b3e\u9700\u6c42\uff09\u4e5f\u4f1a\u62ac\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u3002\u4f60\u7684\u6697\u542b\u5047\u8bbe\u662f\u9700\u6c42\u66f2\u7ebf\u662f\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u63d0\u9ad8\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u9700\u6c42\u91cf\u3002\u4f46\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f9b\u7ed9\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e0d\u53d8\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4f1a\u62ac\u9ad8\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u9700\u6c42\u4e0e\u4ef7\u683c\u4ea4\u4e92\u6500\u5347\u3002\u4f60\u662f\u5728\u5bf9\u623f\u5c4b\u8d2d\u4e70\u8005\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u5728\u5bf9\u50a8\u84c4\u8005\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5efa\u6a21\u5462\uff08\u50a8\u84c4\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u5bf9\u5229\u7387\u53d8\u52a8\u505a\u51fa\u53cd\u5e94\uff09\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

8. \u4f60\u80fd\u80af\u5b9a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u662fy \u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86x\uff1f\u6216\u8005z \u540c\u65f6\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86y \u548cx\uff1f\u770b\u770b\u4e0b\u9762\u53cd\u5411\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u5427\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff1a\u7a76\u7adf\u662f\u5229\u7387\u53d8\u52a8\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u4f4f\u623f\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u53d8\u52a8\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4f4f\u623f\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u53d8\u52a8\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5229\u7387\u7684\u53d8\u52a8\u5462\uff08\u6216\u8005\u662f\u6574\u4f53\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72b6\u51b5\u540c\u65f6\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5229\u7387\u548c\u4f4f\u623f\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u53d8\u52a8\uff09\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

9. \u4ed4\u7ec6\u659f\u914c\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u4e2d\u5e94\u5305\u62ec\u54ea\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u4e0d\u5e94\u5305\u62ec\u54ea\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u5927\u591a\u6570\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u5f15\u5165\u7684\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u8fc7\u591a\u3002\u5927\u53ef\u4e0d\u5fc5\u628a\u51b3\u5b9ay \u7684\u6240\u6709\u56e0\u7d20\u90fd\u4f5c\u4e3a\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

a. R2\u8f83\u9ad8\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u574f\u4e8b\u2014\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u56de\u5f52\u65b9\u7a0b\u662f\u5de6\u811a\u7684\u978b\u5b50\u6570\u91cf = \u03b1 + \u03b2&times;\u53f3\u811a\u7684\u978b\u5b50\u6570\u91cf + \u03b3&times;\u4ef7\u683c + \u6270\u52a8\u9879\u3002\u53f3\u811a\u7684\u978b\u5b50\u6570\u91cf\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

b. \u4e0d\u8981\u505a\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u56de\u5f52\uff1a\u5de5\u8d44 = a + b&times;\u6559\u80b2\u7a0b\u5ea6 + c &times;\u884c\u4e1a + \u6270\u52a8\u9879\u3002\u56fa\u7136\uff0c\u52a0\u5165\u884c\u4e1a\u53d8\u91cf\u662f\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8R2\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u884c\u4e1a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e5f\u662f\u5f71\u54cd\u5de5\u8d44\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20(\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u505a\u597d\u4e86\u524d\u8ff0\u7684\u7b2c2 \u9879\uff0c\u5b83\u5e94\u8be5\u5728\u6270\u52a8\u9879\u91cc)\uff0c\u4f46\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u5e2e\u52a9\u4eba\u4eec\u8fdb\u5165\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4ece\u52a9\u7406\u6c49\u5821\u5e08\u5085\u64e2\u5347\u4e3a\u9996\u5e2d\u6c49\u5821\u5e08\u5085\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u53ea\u62a5\u544a\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u548cp \u503c\u662f\u4e0d\u591f\u7684\uff0c\u8981\u8bf4\u660e\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5bfc\u81f4\u4f30\u8ba1\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6216\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002Fama \u548cFrench1996 \u5e74\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u300a\u591a\u56e0\u5b50\u89e3\u91ca\u300b(Multifactor explanations)\u4fbf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u6309\u7167\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u6587\u732e\u60ef\u4f8b\uff0c\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u62a5\u544a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\uff1aGRS \u68c0\u9a8c\u3002Fama \u548cFrench \u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u671f\u671b\u6536\u76ca\u548c\u03b2\u503c\uff0c\u5e76\u8bf4\u670d\u8bfb\u8005\u76f8\u4fe1\u671f\u671b\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\u4e0e\u03b2 \u503c\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\u76f8\u543b\u5408\u3002\u867d\u7136GRS \u68c0\u9a8c\u7cdf\u7cd5\u900f\u9876\uff0c\u4f46\u8be5\u6587\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8fd115 \u5e74\u6765\u6700\u6210\u529f\u7684\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\uff01\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u6210\u529f\u4e86\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u6570\u636e\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u56fa\u6709\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u52a1\u5fc5\u9610\u660e\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u8bf4\u660e\u6838\u5fc3\u6570\u5b57\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u7684\u663e\u8457\u6027\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u5e94\u9610\u660e\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5bf9\u5927\u578b\u9762\u677f\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u6781\u5c0f\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u4e5f\u4f1a\u663e\u8457\u3002\uff08\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5927\u578b\u9762\u677f\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff0c\u82e5t \u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u4e3a2.10\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u6548\u5e94\u786e\u5b9e\u975e\u5e38\u5fae\u5c0f\uff01\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u90fd\u8981\u62a5\u544a\u5176\u6807\u51c6\u8bef\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

4<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u8bb2\u5ea7\u62a5\u544a<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bb2\u5ea7\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5feb\u5f97\u8ba9\u4f60\u96be\u4ee5\u76f8\u4fe1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u65e2\u7136\u65f6\u95f4\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u5f00\u95e8\u89c1\u5c71\u76f4\u5954\u8981\u70b9\u5c31\u663e\u5f97\u683c\u5916\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5728\u542c\u8bb2\u5ea7\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u8df3\u5230\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n

\u505a\u8bb2\u5ea7\u65f6\uff0c\u65e0\u9700\u9648\u8ff0\u6587\u732e\u7efc\u8ff0\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u52a8\u673a\u3002\u76f4\u63a5\u5207\u5165\u91cd\u70b9\u3002<\/strong>Gene Fama \u7684\u5b66\u672f\u62a5\u544a\u5e38\u5e38\u8fd9\u6837\u5f00\u5934\uff1a\u201c\u8bf7\u770b\u88681\u3002\u201d\u8fd9\u79cd\u505a\u6cd5\u503c\u5f97\u4eff\u6548\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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5<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u7ed3\u8bba<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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